Technical condition and recent movements
• On August 14, 2025, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of around $124,000, supported by an expected reduction in interest rates from the Federal Reserve and a significant increase in institutional investment and positive regulatory interest.
• Following this rise, we saw a notable correction – as the price dropped below $118,000 in the following few days.
• Warnings that recent movements may form a bull trap; a false rise followed by a rapid decline, pushing prices towards the range of $116K–$124K, where sideways trading is expected to continue until a clear breakout occurs in either direction.
• Technically, analysts indicated that the support area around $118,000 represents a key pivot point: either reviving the bullish trend or leading to a deeper decline if broken.
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Price forecasts from experts
• From Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital: There seems to be more than a 50% chance that Bitcoin will rise to the range of $140,000–$150,000 before the market begins its next downward trend, although the potential rise may not exceed 27% of the current price.
• Others see the price potentially dropping to a range between $108,000–$112,000, or continuing momentum towards breaking the resistance range and moving upward to levels no less than $124,000.
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Context and more than just technical analysis
• The institutional and regulatory environment plays a significant role in driving the market. This includes Bitcoin's support in retirement plans (401k) by the Trump administration, and massive inflows from companies like BlackRock, which have digital asset portfolios exceeding $100 billion, heavily weighted in Bitcoin.
• Mining operations have stood as a pillar for the cryptocurrency financial community, especially with growing efficiency and profitability amid rising prices.
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Quick summary
• Current level: Bitcoin is trading around $117,500–$118,000 after recording an ATH near $124,000.
• Current potential trading range: between $116K and $124K, with a pivotal support at $118K.
• Proposed scenarios:
• Bullish scenario: Breaking above $124K supported by institutional entry and economic recovery pushes the price towards $140K–$150K.
• Bearish scenario: Breaking support at $118K could push the price to the range of $108K–$112K.
• Influencing factors: monetary policy, regulation, institutional inflows, and miner movements.
