CME Federal Reserve Watch Data Exploded…#美联储降息

The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September is only 15.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has surged to 84.6%. This shift in direction is quite fast…

Looking at October, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is just 6%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 42.4%. Even more astonishing, the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is actually 51.5%, exceeding half! This means the market expects that the Federal Reserve is very likely to take action consecutively, and the signals for easing are becoming increasingly clear. ​

The direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rates has a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. If a rate cut really happens, dollar liquidity will ease, and funds are likely to flow into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. This wave of heightened expectations may bring new variables to the market. ​

But don't blindly follow the trend; expectations are one thing, but the actual policy implementation is still uncertain… However, this set of data probably indicates that the market's expectations for easing have reached their peak…