Last week I mentioned that Bitcoin is expected to return to 112k, and now it is very close. The market sentiment is currently in a 'sensitive' phase - to emphasize, it is 'sensitive', not 'panic'. The price suddenly drops, yet there is no clear reason found, so some friends begin to recall 'historical mirrors', such as the scene in 2021 when BTC surged to $69,000, reached a new high, and then went into a bear market.
A few days ago, ETH whales frequently reduced their holdings, which is actually a direct manifestation of the long-short divergence at the data level. While everyone is embracing the bubble, they should also realize that the market trend has shown some 'tense' signals.
For example, I still believe BTC has a chance to reach a new high, but it won't be easy to break 125k in the short term; similarly, I also remind those who haven't boarded the train yet to be extra cautious when chasing ETH. This is not bearish, but rather conveys a short-term cautious attitude.
Many people must have been thinking at that time: 'You judged wrong', 'This time is different', 'What follows is a bulldozer crushing mode'. To be honest, when I see these optimistic sentiments, I feel a bit worried for them.
The market is often like this - everyone says 'every time is different', but in fact the pattern is 'every time is the same'. No matter how much capital enters the market, it cannot escape the basic logic of supply and demand balance. Sure enough, as soon as the price drops today, some people immediately come to ask if a bear market is about to start. This is exactly what I mean by 'sensitivity': hoping for endless market rises while feeling uncertain when prices are too high.
Currently in the market, being 'bullish' has almost become a politically correct stance. Anyone who expresses caution will immediately be questioned or even attacked. Many bloggers write analyses very cautiously, needing to convey their viewpoints while fearing misinterpretation.
However, I want to emphasize that my intention has never been bearish. Looking at the mid to long term, whether it's BTC or ETH, from the chip distribution, market consensus to the layout of whales, the overall structure remains healthy. Even if not for 'political correctness', one should still be bullish. But in the short term, it is entirely possible to see a market trend that appears 'weaker' than before. And short-term price drops will not affect those who hold long-term.
Still the same saying, without direction, read more articles. I don't dare to build a position and just look down.
