Bitcoin has undergone a slight correction in recent sessions but remains solid above important support levels. According to analysts, the current decline is not necessarily a negative signal but could serve as a catalyst, paving the way for new capital to enter the market.
In particular, the short-term holder (STH) group participating at the current price level is expected to play a crucial role as a driving force for Bitcoin's momentum towards higher price levels in the near future.
Bitcoin investors are still waiting for profits
The Cost Basis model of STH is emerging as an important tool to explain market behavior. This model identifies the average price at which new Bitcoin wallets enter, while applying standard deviation bands to delineate 'overheated' areas – which often coincide with strong profit-taking phases when prices surge.
According to historical data, $127,000 is considered the first important resistance level. At this price range, local peaks often appear due to early profit-taking by investors. Further on, the +2σ band around $144,000 is regarded as the 'extreme euphoria zone', where market sentiment peaks and is prone to triggering deep corrections.
However, before reaching these selling pressure zones, current market sentiment still shows significant room for price increases. This means Bitcoin may continue its upward trend before facing stronger profit-taking pressures at higher levels.
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) index of short-term holders (STH) provides an important layer of information to assess Bitcoin's growth momentum. In the past, when NUPL approaches the threshold of 0.25, the market often enters a state of profit saturation, leading to correction or accumulation phases. This indicates an overly euphoric sentiment, which can easily lead to a price reversal.
Currently, NUPL has only reached 0.07, significantly lower than the saturation zone. This reflects that short-term investors' profits still have room to expand, and the market has not yet been pushed into the 'overheated' zone. If prices continue to rise, this index could further reinforce the validity of the STH Cost Basis model, thereby raising expectations that Bitcoin still has the potential to conquer higher price levels before facing strong selling pressure.
Bitcoin price remains stable above an important support level
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $115,380, continuing to hold above the critical support area of $115,000. According to on-chain models, selling pressure from the STH group will only truly increase when prices approach $127,000 – the next major profit-taking level, exceeding the previous historical peak of $124,474.
To achieve this goal, Bitcoin needs broader consensus from the market. Geopolitical factors remain a barrier to investor sentiment, but renewed confidence from institutional capital and liquidity recovery could serve as catalysts. If BTC regains the support level of $117,261 and breaks through $120,000, the prospect of a new price record in this cycle will be strengthened.
Conversely, in a negative scenario, losing the $115,000 mark could pull the price back to $112,526 or lower. Such a deep correction would not only weaken the bullish argument but also expose the market's fragility to external volatility, forcing traders to maintain a cautious mindset in shaping their strategies.