Powell's 8.22 Speech: Is a "Turnaround" Coming for the Crypto World?
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech on August 22 may very well be a "life-and-death test" for the cryptocurrency market in 2025!
Why is this rhetoric considered "nuclear-level"?
The central bank's annual meeting in Jackson Hole is the "preview policy stage" for the Federal Reserve. In 2022, Powell made strong statements here, declaring, "As long as greed doesn't decline, interest rates won't stop," which directly caused a global asset crash, halving Bitcoin's price in just six months. In 2013, Bernanke hinted at QE3 during this evening, and gold surged by 9% in a month.
This year's situation is more perilous than ever. Trump is constantly calling for interest rate cuts, even threatening to "replace the Federal Reserve Chairman"; the U.S. has hit a four-year high, yet inflation stubbornly remains above 3%. The market now resembles a red-eyed gambler, with the probability of a rate cut in September spiking to 89%, as if the Fed is about to unleash a flood of liquidity tomorrow.
What situation is most lethal?
Hawkish Surprise: Bitcoin "Flash Crash" Alarm Sounds
If Powell says, "We haven't completely resolved this, don't rush for rate cuts," the market will surely collapse instantly. It's like everyone is eagerly anticipating payday, only for the boss to say, "You’ll have to wait a bit longer," that feeling is like falling from sky to ground.
Dovish Illusion: Short-term Carnival, Long-term Landmine
Hopefully, Powell will explicitly state "September rate cut," and Bitcoin's price could surge to $150,000. But don't celebrate too early; Wall Street loves to play the "buy the rumor, sell the news" game. When everyone feels that rate cuts are stable and rushes to buy, they will take the opportunity to sell, and by then, it will be too late to cry.
History may not repeat itself, but it always has similarities. In 2013, Bernanke ignited QE3, causing gold to soar; in 2022, Powell's hawkish stance caused the Nasdaq to plummet.
This time, Atlanta is calculating to "buy" Bitcoin to fill the treasury, and sovereign funds' crypto asset allocation has skyrocketed to 1.2%.
In my view, Powell's speech on August 22 is likely not just a turning point for the crypto world, but also a signal of traditional finance's "surrender" to the crypto market.
During this time, we are still far from rate cuts; only emptiness is the way to go.
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