ETH is at a critical juncture of 'life and death', and tonight's price direction may have a profound impact on its future trend.
Price trend review
Recently, Ethereum's price performance has been impressive, briefly breaking through $4500, now not far from the historical high of just over $4900 set in 2021. On August 12, cryptocurrency miner Bitmine Immersion submitted documents to federal regulators, planning to issue up to $20 billion in stock to purchase more Ethereum. This news brought strong momentum to the market, further pushing up Ethereum's price.
Historically, Ethereum's price fluctuations are significant:
- In the early stages from 2015 to 2016, the price fluctuated between $0.4 and $10;
- During the bull market from 2017 to 2018, the price rose to $1400 at the end of 2017, surged to about $1000 at the beginning of 2018, and then significantly retraced;
- In 2021, the historical high reached $4868, after which the overall market fluctuated and retraced;
- During the bear market from 2022 to 2024, the price continuously fell from its peak, reaching a low of around $1200;
- Entering 2025, the market is gently recovering amidst fluctuations, with a particularly rapid rise recently.
Key point analysis
- $4270 — Key support level
This price level is significant for Ethereum. If the price can hold above this level tonight, it will be a strong bullish signal from a technical perspective, indicating robust buying power below and that bulls are actively defending this line. Once this level is maintained, market confidence is expected to increase, and many investors may enter to go long due to the perception of a continuing trend, driving prices up, and potentially triggering a surge. At that time, many technical indicators will also turn positive, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) possibly rising further, showing an overbought but strong status; moving averages may form a bullish arrangement, continuously providing support for price increases.
- $4560 — Important resistance level
$4560 is the key resistance for Ethereum to break upwards tonight. Although Ethereum recently broke through $4500, it encountered significant pressure as it approached $4560. If it cannot effectively break through this resistance tonight, it may trigger market panic. After multiple failed attempts by the bulls, they may choose to take profits, while bears will take the opportunity to increase selling pressure, leading to a crash in prices. From a market psychology perspective, a large amount of trapped positions and potential profit-taking positions are clustered around $4560. If the breakout fails, these positions may flood out, creating significant downward pressure on prices.
Bull and bear factors game
- Bullish factors
The crazy hoarding of coins by corporate Ethereum treasury companies is an important support for the bulls. Taking Bitmine Immersion Technologies as an example, it currently holds 1.15 million Ethereum, valued at about $5 billion at current prices, accounting for about 1% of Ethereum's total circulation, and plans to issue more stock to continue increasing its holdings. This large-scale hoarding reduces market circulation, exacerbating supply shortages and providing solid fundamental support for price increases.
At the same time, the inflow of funds into spot Ethereum ETFs is accelerating. Since its approval for listing in July 2024, the total net inflow has reached $9.4 billion, with over $5 billion coming from the past 30 days. Just this Monday, these ETFs set a record for single-day net inflow, surpassing $1 billion for the first time. A large amount of capital is flowing in through ETFs, reflecting an increasing recognition and allocation demand for Ethereum among traditional financial investors, providing ample momentum for bulls.
- Bearish factors
Despite strong bullish forces, bears also have opportunities. The uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment remains a hidden danger for the cryptocurrency market. If there are significant changes in the global economy, such as substantial fluctuations in interest rates or escalating geopolitical conflicts, it may trigger risk aversion among investors, leading funds to flow out of the cryptocurrency market into safer assets, and Ethereum would not be spared.
Moreover, the high volatility and speculation inherent in the cryptocurrency market also create opportunities for bears. When market sentiment is overheated and prices rise too quickly, it is easy to trigger profit-taking and adjustments. If bears successfully counterattack near $4560, triggering panic selling, a price crash is not impossible.
Tonight, Ethereum stands at the crossroads of 'life and death'. Whether it can hold $4270 and break through $4560 will determine its future trend. Investors are closely monitoring every market change, preparing to make choices in this long-short game. Will it be a surge or a crash? Let's wait and see.
