ETH suddenly plunged this morning, briefly dipping to $4278, causing the market to fall into panic. On the surface, the news of 'Old Trump's remarks' and 'a large amount of ETH about to be unstaked' combined to trigger waves of panic selling. However, a deeper analysis reveals that this plunge appears more like a washout leveraging news rather than a real risk, instead providing investors with a buying opportunity.

Let's first outline the two major inducements for this crash:

- Old Trump's public remarks were interpreted by the market as 'bad news for the crypto market', directly triggering emotional selling from investors.

- The news about 'ETH unstaking' has suddenly become frequent, and many investors are worried that 'whales will dump heavily after unlocking', leading them to sell off to avoid risk.

These two factors combined caused ETH to drop more than 4% in a short period, falling directly from around $4450 to $4278.

However, upon closer examination, one will find that these two so-called 'bad news' were actually anticipated and do not count as 'black swan' events:

- Old Trump's remarks seem 'targeted at the crypto market', but the core viewpoint is actually the 'regulatory direction' that the market has repeatedly discussed, such as views on the classification of crypto assets and compliance requirements for exchanges. These are not new messages; institutions have already digested them in advance, and they are even reflected in the price. Moreover, the 'objective facts' he mentioned are essentially problems that have long existed in the industry's development, not suddenly emerging risks. The panic selling is more about the celebrity effect amplifying market sentiment.

- Regarding ETH unstaking, on-chain data has long shown that the 'unlocking amount is within a controllable range'. The scale of ETH about to be unstaked is approximately 23,000 coins, accounting for only 0.03% of the current circulation, which is far from enough to 'crash the market'. Similar panic has occurred before every unstaking, but after actual unlocking, most whales chose to 'continue staking' rather than selling, and it is very likely that this time will not be an exception. The 'panic' stirred up by the news is more targeted at retail investors.

More importantly, this wave of drop did not break the 'key support level': $4278 is just the mid-track support level of ETH's 4-hour chart and has been a 'stabilizing point' during previous pullbacks. From the volume perspective, although there was a lot of selling during the decline, after falling to $4278, buying began to actively enter the market, and the price quickly rebounded to around $4320. This indicates that 'the panic selling has nearly exhausted, and the bulls are starting to pick up at the support level.'

For ordinary investors, what needs to be done now is not to 'follow the panic', but to 'focus on the support levels':

- If the pullback can hold the $4250 - $4300 range, it presents a buying opportunity in batches. After all, the long-term logic of ETH, such as institutional ETF increases and ecosystem expansion, has not changed. Old Trump's remarks and the unstaking news are merely 'short-term emotional disturbances', and after the pullback, one can acquire chips at a lower price than before.

- Even if the price dips further, there is stronger support around $4200, which is the daily MA30 moving average. As long as this position is not broken, the overall upward trend remains intact, and there is no need to lose composure due to short-term fluctuations.

In the crypto circle, there has always been a situation of 'washing the market with news', especially when ETH is not far from its previous high ($4730), the main force needs to wash out the uncertain retail investors with 'false bad news' to break through resistance more easily. This wave of drop seems 'full of risks', but in reality, it is a process of 'filtering chips'. Once the panic sentiment passes, ETH is likely to return to a trend of oscillating upward, and the current pullback is providing an 'opportunity' for those who understand the underlying logic. What are your thoughts on this matter? Feel free to share in the comments.#加密市场回调 #中国加密新规