Last week, the market experienced a narrow fluctuation with mixed positions, investor sentiment was cautious, and global attention is focused on this week's 'Super Thursday' and 'Capping Friday'—the Federal Reserve will intensively release policy signals, and the main theme this week is 'listening to the Federal Reserve.' The Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting will also set the tone for future monetary policy.
Core highlight one: 'Federal Reserve time' on Thursday early morning
2:00
The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting, revealing the details of the previous FOMC meeting committee's discussions on the economy, inflation, and policy rates. The market will focus on the degree of internal disagreement, economic assessment, and keywords like 'sufficiently restrictive.'
3:00
In 2027, FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak, reflecting officials' real-time views on the economic outlook, which may strengthen or undermine the expectations conveyed by the minutes.
Core highlight two: Powell's annual meeting speech at 22:00 on Friday
This is the focus of the market this week, historically often a window for signaling a shift in monetary policy. The market has three major speculations:
1. Hawkish: Reaffirm anti-inflation stance, do not rule out further tightening of policies;
2. Dovish: Acknowledge economic downside risks, hint at peak rates and pave the way for rate cuts;
3. Neutral: Emphasize data dependence, do not provide clear guidance (probability is high).
Other data of concern
20:30 on Thursday
The number of initial unemployment claims in the US this week reflects the state of the labor market, and the data quality may influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy (a key reference before Powell's speech).
This week's outlook
This week is 'Federal Reserve Week'. Before Thursday, the market may remain cautious, and market fluctuations are likely to concentrate and explode from Thursday. The consistency of the meeting minutes, official speeches, and Powell's statements will determine the market direction this week and in the next month. Investors need to be wary of high volatility.
