This week, the cryptocurrency market will face multiple tests, with U.S. economic events, Federal Reserve policy signals, and mainstream coin trends intertwining, leading to potential increased market volatility.
Macro focus: Three major events affecting market sentiment.
This week, the U.S. economic calendar is densely packed with highlights.
1. The outcome of Monday's meeting between Trump and Zelensky is highly anticipated; if the conflict eases, it may boost global asset confidence.
2. On Thursday, August’s S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be released, serving as economic leading indicators; the quality of the data will impact the market's judgment on economic prospects.
3. The most crucial event is Friday's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at Jackson Hole.
Last week's inflation and consumption data were mixed, adding uncertainty to the expectations for a rate cut in September (the current futures market predicts an 84.6% probability of a rate cut). Analysts believe Powell may maintain a 'wait-and-see attitude' and emphasize 'data dependence'; if dovish signals are released, risk assets like cryptocurrencies may be boosted, while hawkish signals could trigger a pullback. +V:zyg20004011
Mainstream coins are declining: Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing downward pressure.
On Monday morning, the crypto market collectively cooled, with the total market capitalization falling to $4 trillion, a nearly 6% drop from last week's peak. #Bitcoin led the decline, dropping to $115,000 in early trading, a cumulative drop of 6.9% from last week's high; #Ethereum fell to a one-week low of $4,345, still 10% away from its historical high. #Altcoins showed significant divergence, with #XRP and #Solana dropping over 4%, while #Chainlink and #Monero rose against the trend.
Trump meme coin: Is a rebound possible after 4 months of sideways movement?
The Trump meme coin (#TRUMP), which previously triggered a market crash, has recently shown signs of recovery. Analysts point out that this coin has been in a sideways movement for 131 days since it bottomed out in April, while altcoins typically start a bull market 8-10 months after bottoming out, and it is currently in a critical window.
If the trend reverses, the upward movement may last for 1-3 months, targeting $78, which is over a 700% increase from the current price. Analysts suggest holding long-term, as short-term fluctuations do not affect long-term potential.
XRP has broken below $3, triggering a wave of liquidations.
#XRP fell to $2.96 in the early trading session on Monday, hitting a new low since August 6, with a drop of over 4% in 24 hours, performing the worst among the top ten cryptocurrencies.
Under market sell-off pressure, the total liquidation of crypto assets reached $465 million in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $380 million. Currently, $2.81 is a key support level, with approximately 1.7 billion XRP accumulated here; if lost, it may face further pressure.
Dogecoin has fallen through the channel, and the support level is in jeopardy.
#Dogecoin price has fallen below $0.25, starting a new downtrend, currently losing the key ascending channel and the 100-hour moving average, dropping below $0.2320. Technical indicators show that bulls are desperately defending the $0.2165 support (76.4% Fibonacci retracement level); if lost, it may drop to around $0.20.
Upward resistance is at $0.2320 and $0.2420, which must be broken to reverse the downward trend.
This week's market direction will heavily depend on macro signals and capital flows, and investors need to closely watch Federal Reserve speeches and changes in key cryptocurrency support levels.
