This morning Bitcoin and Ethereum plummeted, and altcoins were also bloodied! In the last 24 hours, a total of 121,209 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $498 million! Recently, Sister Meow has been emphasizing that there are no obvious bottom signals on the 4-hour and daily charts, and personally, I do not recommend casually going for a rebound. Sister Meow did not trade mainstream coins over the weekend and escaped a disaster, currently exploring new things on the OKB chain, hoping to catch a bottom this time.
Reminder: Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum are testing the 15-minute trend for the second time. The probability of a rebound this afternoon or evening is over 75%. This morning's decline has made the 15-minute trend more typical. The bearish trend remains unchanged on the 1-hour, 2-hour, and 4-hour levels. If there is no strong rebound after the evening when European and American main forces come in, the rebound will be a shorting opportunity!
BTC
Bitcoin has currently formed a double top on the daily chart and is undergoing a right shoulder decline. After a volume reduction rebound yesterday, it continues to decline. Technically, the price has touched the support trend line for the fourth time (three or more times need to be paid attention to). It has now fallen below the low point of August 15, further confirming the weakness of buying power. Next, it may directly fall to around 112,000 to complete the A-wave decline, and after receiving short-term support at 112,000, it will conduct a B-wave rebound.
Strategy: The downward target is around 112,000. In the short term, continue to follow the short positions. In the medium term, adjust the long position ambush range to 113,000-112,000. Focus on whether it will test the effectiveness of support at 116,411 today!
ETH
Ethereum rebounded yesterday, but today it fell below yesterday's rising position, entering a washout phase. Yesterday's performance indicates that the washout space must be limited, hence the increase yesterday and the continued selling today is purely to create a market panic. The next support point will be around 4,100.
Strategy: Focus on support at 4315, 4200, 4100; resistance tentatively set at 4625; the key levels for ETH right now are 4492 and 4400, with narrow fluctuations this weekend!
Altcoins
In this round of market, many people have realized that an old logic has failed—ETH rising does not mean that altcoins will collectively surge. The reason is quite straightforward:
(1) The capital structure has changed.
In the past, retail funds were like 'flood irrigation', hot money flew around freely. Now the main players are ETFs, institutions, and large compliant funds, which pay more attention to risk control and return efficiency, and won't rush into all sectors like before.
(2) Hotspots are highly concentrated.
The focus of market narratives is concentrated on tracks like AI, RWA, and stablecoins. Other fields find it hard to attract funds, creating a situation where 'some eat meat, while most drink soup.'
(3) Selling pressure is evident.
After several rounds of declines, many people are stuck at high positions. As long as the price rebounds slightly, there will be a wave of selling to break even, which limits the space for sustained rises.
(4) The player's mentality has changed.
After experiencing the baptism of a bear market, most people prefer to chase stable leading projects rather than gamble on those worthless coins without fundamentals, so funds are naturally more concentrated on a few targets.
In simple terms, this is no longer an era where all altcoins can 'share the blessings'. Funds and attention are concentrating on a few high-quality tracks and leading projects, while the remaining projects can only fend for themselves. This time, with the altcoin crash, it's possible to bottom fish some strong and quality coins like LINK, IP, DOGE, LTC.
On-chain
Why did UFO go to zero directly today?
Yesterday someone tried to persuade me to buy, as if they wanted me to take over their positions. Luckily, I didn't buy. Everyone must be rational and choose coins wisely; otherwise, only you will get cut.
Recently, I've mainly been playing with shitcoins, and the earlier ones have yielded decent returns:
XDOG surged more than 20 times, Feeling (Feeling_xlayer) and oeoe each rose more than 6 times, but OR did not rise.
Yesterday XDOG withdrew from the pool, causing panic in the market, and many coins like OKR followed suit and went to zero, with the leader also falling sharply. My profits from a few days ago have almost all retraced.
Password recommendation!!!
The TST wild farm has been washed down, and there is a strong independent market recently, and there are no obstacles for TST to rally. The smallest market cap meme in Binance is still the first meme called by CZ. Looking forward to a doubling expectation.
