When the 21 million Bitcoins are fully mined in 2140, the 'block reward' mechanism that has supported the network for over a century will come to an end. This means the core source of miners' income for maintaining network security will disappear, and Bitcoin must fully rely on transaction fees for survival. This transformation concerns not only technical feasibility but also touches on Bitcoin's fundamental attributes of 'decentralization' and 'security' — can it evolve from a 'subsidized network' into a 'self-circulating value ecosystem'?
I. The End of Old Pillars: Why Block Rewards Are Irreplaceable?
For more than a century, block rewards have been the 'security anchor' of the Bitcoin network. Miners obtain newly issued Bitcoins by verifying transactions and packaging blocks, which incentivizes the investment of computational power and ensures the decentralization and attack resistance of the ledger. From the initial 50 coins per block to halving every four years, this mechanism has allowed Bitcoin to accumulate sufficient computational power and trust during its growth phase.
However, as designed, the last Bitcoin will be mined in 2140, and block rewards will drop to zero. As OKX CEO Gracie Lin stated: "At that point, the entire weight of network security will rest on transaction fees."
II. Possible New Pillars: Transaction Fees and Ecological Synergy
The industry generally believes that the key to transformation lies in whether the 'transaction fee market can mature,' supported by two major forces:
1. Demand-Driven Fee Potential
If Bitcoin continues to be a global financial infrastructure, institutional fund transfers, cross-border payments, and other large transactions will become normalized. JuCoin co-founder Sammi Li analogizes: "Just as high-end real estate commands high prices due to scarcity, if Bitcoin's block space becomes a necessity, users will be willing to pay for efficient transactions." The deep participation of institutions has already shown signs — their stable trading demand may become the 'ballast' for miners' income.
2. The Synergistic Effect of Layer Two Solutions
Layer two protocols like the Lightning Network are addressing Bitcoin's scalability issues: small, high-frequency transactions are completed off-chain, reducing congestion and costs, while 'opening/closing channels' benefits on-chain transactions. XBO CEO Lior Aizik points out: "Layer two allows Bitcoin to adapt to both small daily transactions and large value transfers, indirectly expanding the transaction fee base of the main chain."
III. The Hidden Reefs of Transformation: The Dual Test of Security and Decentralization
Even with positive factors, the transformation still harbors risks:
- The loosening of the security line: If transaction fee growth does not meet expectations, declining miner profits may lead to a sharp drop in computational power (hash rate). Gracie Lin warns: "Historically, there have been instances of hash rate crashes due to profit declines; if 20%-30% of computational power exits in the future, the network's attack resistance will be significantly weakened."
- The fading of decentralization: The volatility of transaction fees is more fatal for small miners — they may find it difficult to bear the costs of equipment and electricity, potentially being forced to exit, leading to the concentration of computational power in the hands of a few large mining farms. This directly contradicts Bitcoin's core principle of 'anti-centralized control' and could even reduce it from a 'decentralized benchmark' to a 'system controlled by a few.'
- The chain reaction of trust collapse: If network stability and decentralization are compromised, Bitcoin's reputation as a 'store of value' will be shaken. Lior Aizik bluntly states: "The worst-case scenario is that it degenerates from an active financial ecosystem into a 'museum exhibit,' losing circulation and transaction capability."
IV. Time Window: What Does 115 Years of Preparation Mean?
From now until 2140, the Bitcoin community has 115 years to address challenges. This is not only a window for technical iteration but also a period for ecological consensus building:
- Possibly exploring more flexible fee mechanisms (such as dynamic rate adjustments) and optimizing on-chain transaction efficiency;
- There is a need to establish an ecosystem that supports small miners (such as low-cost mining technologies and cooperative models) to avoid the concentration of computational power;
- Layer two solutions need to mature further, both to alleviate pressure and to continuously benefit the value of the main chain.
As Sammi Li stated: "If Bitcoin still has value, economic laws will drive the system to self-adjust. The long transition period is precisely the confidence to avoid shocks and steadily evolve."
Conclusion
The transformation in 2140 is essentially Bitcoin's coming-of-age ceremony from 'relying on issuance incentives' to 'relying on ecological value.' Whether it can succeed does not depend on technical details, but on whether the community can uphold the baseline of 'security' and 'decentralization' over the 115 years — this is both a test of blockchain logic and the ultimate verification of human collaborative consensus.
