This morning, Bitcoin and Ethereum plummeted, and altcoins were also bloodied! In the last 24 hours, a total of 94,165 people globally were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $365 million! Recently, I have been emphasizing that the 4-hour and daily levels do not yet show a clear bottom signal. Personally, I do not recommend randomly taking long positions on rebounds. Over the weekend, I did not participate in mainstream coins and avoided a disaster, focusing instead on new things on the OKB chain, hoping to find a bottom this time.
BTC
Bitcoin has broken through the trend line, which has been in place since the rise to 74000. Once broken, it will expand the level and adjustment time. In the recent five-wave increase over the past four months, each segment of the increase and the transaction volume at the daily level are decreasing, and the bullish momentum is weakening. The net inflow of BTC funds from ETFs is gradually decreasing.
Bitcoin triggered an overbought signal on the 4-hour cycle and then rapidly declined. The current price is still in a downward process, and the oversold signal has not yet appeared. The key to observe next is the market's first reaction once an oversold condition is triggered. If it rebounds quickly like the last time, it indicates that the bulls still have strength; if the reaction is slow or continues to decline, it means that the bullish momentum is insufficient.
In terms of operations: first support at 114488-113488, second support at 112888-111888. For trend positions, wait for the previous low of 111888 to break and then buy on the way down. However, it should be clear that this is just a buying opportunity within a range fluctuation, not a trend reversal buying signal.
ETH
Bitcoin continues to fall after breaking its support, with Ethereum also following suit. It has dropped back into a downtrend channel. This time, Ethereum is declining faster than Bitcoin. On the 4-hour chart, it is about to drop to the lower range of 4210-4270, basically confirming that ETH is still following a three-wave downward script. Moreover, it's becoming increasingly clear that it is a three-wave decline. How to understand this:
/ First wave decline - around 7%, rebound about 5%
/ Second wave decline - around 7%, rebound about 5%
/ Third wave?
Based on experience with market manipulation tactics, generally, there are three waves of decline, with the third wave declining by around 7% near 4260, hitting a limit around 4082, followed by a rapid rebound (or rebound followed by consolidation).
Today's continued sell-off is purely to create a sense of market panic. There are no short positions; one can wait for an opportunity to buy the dip.
Altcoins
In this round of market activity, many people have discovered that an old logic has failed – an increase in ETH does not mean that altcoins will collectively surge. The reason is actually quite straightforward:
(1) The funding structure has changed.
In the past, retail funds were like 'a flood', with hot money flying around casually; now the main players are ETFs, institutions, and large compliant funds. They place more emphasis on risk control and return efficiency, and won't rush into all sectors like before.
(2) The hotspots are highly concentrated.
The market narrative is focused on AI, RWA, stablecoins, and similar sectors, making it difficult for other areas to attract funds, resulting in a situation where 'some eat meat, while most drink soup'.
(3) The selling pressure is evident.
After several rounds of declines, many people are stuck at high positions. As soon as the price rebounds slightly, there will be a wave of selling to free up positions, which suppresses the space for sustained increases.
(4) The players' mindset has changed.
After experiencing the baptism of a bear market, most people prefer to pursue stable leading projects rather than gamble on those worthless coins without fundamentals. Naturally, funds are concentrated on a few targets.
In simple terms, this is not an era where all altcoins can receive equal attention. Funds and attention are concentrating on a few high-quality sectors and leading projects, while the remaining projects are left to fend for themselves. In this wave of altcoin crashes, it is possible to buy the dip on some quality strong links, IP, Doge, and LTC.
We enter the cryptocurrency market to seize trends. We are not here to earn a salary; we are here to make money. Now that the trend is in front of you, if you miss this wave, you may have to wait another 2 years!
