Qiongqi Exclusive Analysis $ETH Short-term Correction Alert, If You Don't Click In, You Might Be the Next One to Get Liquidated!

Downward Risks Under Overbought Conditions, Capital Withdrawal, and Regulatory Concerns

Friends in the crypto space, recently ETH has strongly broken through $4000, but various signs indicate that its short-term correction risk is sharply rising.

From a technical perspective, ETH's daily RSI has repeatedly surged above 80, indicating an extreme overbought range, and the bullish momentum is showing signs of fatigue. The MACD histogram continues to contract, and a 'bearish engulfing' pattern has appeared on the 4-hour chart. The price has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band, and if it cannot reclaim $4300, it is likely to test the $4000 round number. Looking back at 2021, after ETH broke through $4000, it plummeted 35% within two weeks. This technical pattern is similar, and the correction risk should not be underestimated.

The capital situation is also not optimistic. The inflow speed of spot ETH ETF funds has significantly slowed down, and some funds have even experienced net redemptions. In the options market, large investors are buying put options to hedge risks, with a surge in the open interest of put options with a $4000 strike price, while the open interest of call options above $4500 has declined, indicating that institutions are cautious about short-term bullish expectations.

Regulatory concerns are even more ominous. Although the SEC has approved spot ETH ETFs, the chairman has repeatedly emphasized that most cryptocurrencies are considered securities, and there is a risk of ETH being reclassified. Global regulation is tightening, and if major economies simultaneously tighten their policies, ETH's liquidity will be impacted.

Market sentiment has also shifted from greed to neutral, with increased discussions about ETH peaking on social media. On-chain data shows capital outflow, and some long-term holders have chosen to take profits.

In the short term, the probability of an ETH correction is high. Traders may set their stop-loss at $4200; if it falls below this level, it could accelerate the downward movement. Long-term investors may look for buying opportunities in the $3500 - $3800 range. However, the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investments should be approached with caution and proper risk hedging. Future events such as Federal Reserve policies and SEC rulings could also impact ETH's trend, so everyone must pay close attention.

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