Compiled by: GaryMa Wu discusses blockchain

Summary
Wu discusses this week's macro indicators and analysis: Last week, the U.S. July CPI annual rate was lower than expected, but the core CPI rose to the highest level since February, while the July PPI annual rate significantly exceeded market expectations. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September; this week, key focuses include the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, and the trilateral talks between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine.

Review of last week

  • The U.S. announced a July seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate of 0.2%, expected 0.20%, previous value 0.30%; July unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%, expected 2.8%, previous value 2.7%. The July unadjusted core CPI annual rate further increased to 3.1%, the highest in five months, exceeding market expectations of 3.0%.

  • The U.S. July PPI annual rate was 3.3%, expected 2.5%, previous value revised from 2.30% to 2.4%. This significantly exceeded the market expectation of 2.5%, marking the highest level since February. The U.S. July PPI monthly rate recorded 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022.

  • China's July M2 money supply annual rate was 8.8%, expected 8.3%.

  • 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed a desire to review more economic data before deciding whether to cut interest rates.

  • 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that if the labor market remains solid, he still believes that a rate cut in 2025 would be appropriate.

  • The number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 9 was 224,000, expected 228,000, previous value revised from 226,000 to 227,000.


Key events & indicators this week
August 18

  • Trilateral talks between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine


August 20

  • New Zealand Fed announces interest rate decision (10:00)


August 21

  • The Federal Reserve releases monetary policy meeting minutes (02:00)

  • 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on economic outlook (03:00)

  • The number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 16 (ten thousand people) (20:30)

  • Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, until August 23


August 22

  • Powell will give a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (22:00)

#PPI