Translated by: Gary Ma Wu on Blockchain

Summary
Wu discusses this week's macro indicators and analysis: Last week, Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole was widely interpreted as a clear signal for a rate cut in September; this week, focus is on the ECB meeting minutes, U.S. Q2 real GDP, and U.S. July core PCE, etc.

Last Week Review

  • The Federal Reserve publishes the July monetary policy meeting minutes, with staff projecting that the real GDP growth rate from 2025 to 2027 will be roughly consistent with previous forecasts. Although the impact of trade tariffs is expected to materialize later and be relatively weak, soft consumer spending growth and downward adjustments in population expectations partially offset positive factors. The labor market is expected to weaken, with the unemployment rate projected to exceed the natural rate by the end of 2025 and remain above that level throughout the forecast period. Some participants noted that the use of payment stablecoins may increase following the passage of the GENIUS Act, potentially enhancing payment system efficiency and driving demand for supporting assets (such as U.S. Treasury bonds); at the same time, stablecoins may have widespread implications for the banking system and the execution of monetary policy, necessitating continued attention to their supporting assets and potential systemic risks.

  • The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 16 is 235,000, expected to be 225,000, and the previous value was 224,000. The number of initial jobless claims recorded the largest increase in nearly three months last week, indicating that layoffs may be increasing, further exacerbating signs of weakness in the labor market. The Department of Labor stated on Thursday that for the week ending August 16, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the largest increase since the end of May.

  • Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at the Jackson Hole annual meeting that the Federal Reserve is abandoning the flexible average inflation target framework of 2020, and we cannot take stable inflation expectations for granted; the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is now clear. Merely estimating that employment may exceed its maximum sustainable level does not necessarily require tightening policy. If a tight labor market poses risks to price stability, pre-emptive action may be necessary.


Key Events & Indicators This Week
August 26

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia publishes the August monetary policy meeting minutes (09:30)


August 28

  • ECB publishes July monetary policy meeting minutes (19:30)

  • U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 23 (10,000) (20:30)

  • U.S. Q2 Real GDP Annualized Quarter-on-Quarter Revision (20:30)

  • The U.S. imposes an additional 25% tariff on India, with a total tariff rate of 50%


August 29

  • Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks on monetary policy (06:00)

  • U.S. July Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year (20:30)

  • U.S. August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Final Value (22:00)


August 31

  • China August Official Manufacturing PMI (09:30)