Cryptocurrency market performance
Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $4.04 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.63%, or $2.36 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $273.4 billion, with a 7-day increase of 1.39%, of which USDT accounts for 60.43%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most are up while a few are down, including: OKB with a 7-day increase of 111.49%, AERO with a 7-day increase of 63.84%, RAY with a 7-day increase of 30.44%, SKL with a 7-day increase of 109.68%, and USELESS with a 7-day increase of 52.53%.
This week, the net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF: $547.7 million; U.S. Ethereum spot ETF net inflow: $2.852 billion.
Market forecast (August 18 - August 22):
This week, there was a large issuance of stablecoins, with continued net inflow into U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, while altcoins saw significant increases this week. The RSI index is at 44.15, indicating overbought conditions. The fear and greed index is at 59 (lower than last week).
BTC: After breaking through $123,218, it looks up to $125,000. If the Federal Reserve takes a hawkish action, BTC may pull back, with support at $112,000;
ETH: With continuous purchases by listed companies, ETH is expected to challenge $5,000, with support at $4,400;
Short-term traders are closely watching key resistance/support levels, while long-term investors are using pullbacks to position themselves, paying attention to the September interest rate cut decision and the Bitcoin halving cycle window.
Understanding the present
Weekly major events review
1. On August 12, according to Jupiter data, in the past 24 hours, pump.fun ranked first in the market share ranking of Solana token issuance platforms with 69.7%, Letsbonk ranked second with 15.2%, and BAGS ranked third with 9.14%;
2. On August 12, Ethereum's inventory in CEX dropped to its lowest level since July 2016, down 6.7% so far in Q3 this year;
3. On August 12, billionaire Peter Thiel once again positioned himself in Ethereum. According to the latest SEC filings, Peter Thiel and his investment team acquired 7.5% of the shares in the Ethereum treasury reserve company ETHZilla (formerly 180 Life Sciences Corp.);
4. On August 13, according to 8Marketcap data, as ETH briefly broke through $4,600, the market value of ETH temporarily reported $556 billion, surpassing Netflix to rank 25th in global asset market value;
5. On August 13, Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) announced plans to increase its financing scale by $20 billion to increase its ETH holdings;
6. On August 12, Aave announced that the active loan amount exceeded $25 billion, setting a new historical high;
7. On August 14, according to rockflow data, the cryptocurrency trading platform Bullish (BLSH) closed up 83.78% on its first day of U.S. stock listing, with a closing price of $68, a market value of $9.94 billion, and a trading volume of $5.176 billion, with a turnover rate of 185.45%;
8. On August 14, Bitcoin briefly broke through $124,000, setting a new historical high, reaching a peak of $124,051, with the current quote at $123,930, a 24-hour increase of 3.29%;
9. On August 14, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that (regarding cryptocurrency reserves) there will be no purchases, and seized assets will be used.
Macroeconomics
1. On August 12, the U.S. July seasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate rose further to 3.1%, the highest in five months, above the market expectation of 3.0%, with the previous value at 2.90%;
2. On August 12, the U.S. July seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%, expected 2.80%, previous value 2.70%. It remained the same as last month, slightly lower than expected;
3. On August 14, after the release of U.S. July PPI data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in September slightly decreased to 92.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged remained at 7.5%;
4. On August 14, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 9 was 224,000, expected 228,000, with the previous value revised from 226,000 to 227,000.
ETF
According to statistics, from August 11 to August 15, the net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $547.7 million; as of August 15, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.758 billion, currently holding $23.151 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $88.6 billion. The total market value of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $153.043 billion.
U.S. Ethereum spot ETF net inflow: $2.852 billion.
Envisioning the future
Upcoming events
1. Coinfest Asia 2025 will be held from August 21 to 22 in Bali, Indonesia;
2. WebX Asia 2025 will be held from August 25 to 26 in Tokyo, Japan;
3. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be held from August 28 to 29 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre.
Important events
1. On August 20 at 10:00, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce the interest rate decision;
2. On August 21 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16 (in ten thousand);
3. On August 22 at 22:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.
Token unlock
1. ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 172 million tokens on August 17, worth approximately $11.22 million, accounting for 3.61% of the circulation;
2. Fasttoken (FTN) will unlock 20 million tokens on August 18, worth approximately $91.4 million, accounting for 2.08% of the circulation;
3. LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 25.72 million tokens on August 20, worth approximately $55.53 million, accounting for 8.53% of the circulation;
4. KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 23.35 million tokens on August 20, worth approximately $25.22 million, accounting for 8.82% of the circulation.
About us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical weapon. We analyze market trends through (weekly insights) and (in-depth reports); leveraging our exclusive column (Hotcoin Selected) (dual screening by AI + experts) to identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers will also interact with you live to interpret hot topics and predict trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.
Risk warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries inherent risks. We strongly advise investors to invest based on a full understanding of these risks and under a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
X: x.com/Hotcoin_Academy
Mail: [email protected]
