📉 $BTC (2025-08-17 08:50) | Long/Short Trend Index: 46 / 100 (Neutral to Bearish)

📈 $BTC (2025-08-16 08:30) | Long/Short Trend Index: 48 / 100 (Neutral to Bearish)
BTC is currently priced at $117,517, having retreated from a high of $122,000 over the past 48 hours. The short-term rebound is weak, with significant pressure from the mid-term moving averages. The MACD shows a death cross structure across multiple periods, and the RSI is below the midpoint for most periods. In the short term, the support level at 116,800 needs to be monitored; if lost, it may further drop to the 114,500 area. The overall trend is weak, and participation in rebounds should be cautious.



🔹 Multi-period K-line Trend Analysis:
15-minute chart: MA7/25 crossed below MA99 after a brief rebound, MACD has just formed a golden cross but with limited momentum, RSI 53.99;
1-hour chart: Moving average system in bearish arrangement, MACD death cross followed by shortening green bars, RSI 40.64 shows signs of a low-level rebound;
4-hour chart: MA7 has crossed below MA25 and is approaching MA99, MACD death cross continues, RSI 41.00 shows weak fluctuations;
Daily chart: Price is near MA25, MACD golden cross momentum is weakening, RSI 51.17 is close to the midpoint;
Weekly chart: Long-term trend remains bullish, but the MACD red bars are narrowing, and RSI 63.70 shows signs of top fatigue.

📊 Technical Indicators Analysis:
MACD: 15m short cycle rebound golden cross, 1H/4H still in death cross downtrend, daily momentum is declining, weekly chart shows high-level convergence;
RSI: Short cycle returns near midpoint, 1H/4H still weak, daily and weekly charts show high-level fatigue;
Moving Average System: Short and mid-term moving averages form a bearish arrangement, daily chart under pressure, weekly chart support remains;
Trading Volume: Increased during the decline, insufficient volume for rebounds, funding is bearish.

🌐 Macroeconomic News Summary (last 24 hours):
1. [CoinDesk | August 15 22:45] US CPI year-on-year rose 3.1%, lower than expected, raising the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September to 68%, providing short-term support for risk assets;
2. [Glassnode | August 15 21:20] Net outflow of BTC from exchanges is 18,500 coins, the highest in nearly two weeks, indicating some funds are moving into cold wallets at lower prices;
3. [Bloomberg | August 15 19:30] The US SEC's approval process for the Ethereum spot ETF has entered its final stage, with market expectations that it may pass in September;
4. [CryptoQuant | August 15 17:50] BTC perpetual contract long/short ratio has fallen to 0.89, with the proportion of leveraged long positions decreasing, showing a cautious market sentiment.