The media is already screaming: Bitcoin is hitting records! The king of the market is back! BTC above 118,000 USD! Let's skip the catchy headlines and consider which direction the price of Bitcoin will take in the coming months.

💰 Where are we?

Let's start with what is happening in mid-August 2025. A few days ago, $BTC set an ATH at over 124 thousand dollars. On-chain data shows high liquidity and increasing hash rate.

Why now? We can only guess. It is likely partially the effect of a record influx of capital into Bitcoin ETFs. 3 billion dollars in just a few weeks! Institutions seem to have envied the profitability of MicroStrategy.

Looking fundamentally, the war with Iran has been averted and we have a moment of political calm. More technically, breaking above $110-112k opened the way for BTC to rise. Bla, bla, bla, bla...

Okay, that's enough. The most important question is simply: what next? Will the increase continue, or conversely, are these the last spasms of a dying cycle? Historical analogies can help us.

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📅 Lessons from the previous bull market

In every previous cycle, Bitcoin reached ATH in the final phase of the bull market, after which it almost immediately entered a phase of declines.

  • in the cycle 2011–2013: ATH ~1150 USD (December 2013), drop of ~40% within a month

  • in the cycle 2015–2017: ATH ~19,500 USD (December 2017), drop of ~35% within a month

  • in the cycle 2019–2021: ~69,000 USD (November 2021), drop of ~30% within a month

Such statistics look beautiful, but they have one fundamental flaw - we do not know if today's ATH is already the final and correct one.

For consolation: no one knows this. 😅 If anyone is 100% convinced that the bull market will last another year, or conversely, that the declines will occur next week - you can safely ignore their opinion.

🚨 🚨 🚨 WARNING - it's worth noting that ATH occurs roughly every 4 years. If the trend holds, the current one can be expected in October-November 2025.

🔍 Indicators are an investor's friend

Much more sensible than reading tea leaves will be to look at hard data. Just remember that they don't always tell the whole truth either.

🌈 1. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart v2

It shows where Bitcoin is situated against its historical backdrop. Currently, it suggests that we are in the HODL phase. It does not provide a target price in the cycle, but cautiously we can estimate it at around 200,000 dollars.

📊 2. MVRV Z

It allows for the identification of extreme overvaluation or undervaluation of the price $BTC . Checking whether we should buy is fairly easy; determining the moment to sell is much harder. The current reading does not yet indicate overheating.

📈 3. MACD

A technical indicator based on moving averages, indicating the long-term trend in the market. Both the daily and weekly readings are positive, which is very good news.

⚡4. RSI

Relative strength trend indicator. Unlike MACD, it is entering the risk zone on both a daily and weekly basis, indicating the possibility of a correction.

📋 5. Analysis of the past

This is not an indicator, but an attempt to understand today's situation based on data from previous cycles. According to them, we should expect the end of the bull market around October 2025, and ATH should occur at around 140,000 dollars. Perhaps 20 thousand dollars more in a very short spike.

❓ Not everything can be measured

The year 2020 showed how much such attempts to predict the future are worth. Media panic surrounding the Covid-19 virus caused a 30% drop in BTC's value in one day. No model accounted for such an event.

A similar situation could repeat today. A new pandemic, a return to war in the Middle East, the collapse of a major bank, a sharp devaluation of Tesla shares... On the other hand, panic buying driven by FOMO is also possible in the face of still rising prices $BTC .

For this reason, treat our calculations more as an intellectual exercise than a binding market forecast.

🎯 Final verdict: how much will Bitcoin be?

The above disclaimers are very important. However, few will probably read them while looking for answers to one simple question - how much will BTC be???

Considering all indicators, we will likely reach an ATH of 140-160 thousand dollars, and the bull market will last until autumn 2025. Along the way, there will likely be at least one significant correction that will give many a heart attack.

However, this is pure speculation. If you do not own Bitcoin by now, I strongly advise against buying it now. The risk is simply too high. It's better to wait for the beginning of the bear market and think about a short position if you understand what that entails.

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