I estimate that over 90% of people believe that this contract market consists of a structure made up of bulls and bears. And within this, there is another very important role, the 'dealer'! Once the positions are blown up and losses are hit, it will be assumed that the dog dealer is messing with you.
First of all, I can responsibly tell you that there is no dog dealer that you imagined in this market, and the market is not composed of bulls and bears. The true opposites in the contract market are dealers and retail investors.
Dealers have two things to do in this market: quote and match trades in both directions, and they must make you stop-loss! You might think this dog is really bad; making me hit a loss is one of his tasks. I tell you why this becomes one of his tasks: because without your stop-loss, there is no way to create severe fluctuations in the market, which would lead to a loss of liquidity. Dealers must continuously create liquidity in the market. So how do they push the direction in the market?
First of all, dealers cannot actively trade; they can only quote passively. However, quotes can be rescinded. For example, if ETH is currently priced at 4500 and there are quotes at every position in the 4500-4510 range, when the dealer wants to push towards 4510, he can rescind the quotes in the 4500-4510 range. All the people who want to participate in going long at that position will directly buy at 4510. If there are a lot of bears stopping out or getting liquidated at 4510, a large number of buy orders will be generated, quickly pushing the market price up, possibly causing more bears to get liquidated at even higher positions, thus rapidly raising the price within a very short period of time, resulting in the explosive rise you see. You might be thinking about another question at this time: dealers quote both ways, so is it also possible for them to be stuck? First of all, dealers only need to earn the spread between the buy and sell quotes in the market (of course, a few unscrupulous ones will also earn from your slippage), so once they sell you a contract order, they will immediately hedge that contract order in the options market in the opposite direction, so whether the market rises or falls has nothing to do with them.
After seeing this, don't keep mumbling about this so-called dog dealer, he doesn't exist!
If you still have the patience to see this, I will tell you some things that will further subvert your worldview.
You may have learned a bunch of messy trading systems, strategies, and various random indicators from being a novice until now, but what I want to tell you now is that 95% of these things are useless. If you are still using naked candlestick charts to trade, I can only say you are using tools from decades ago, which were made for selling rice in Japan, to fight against modern AI algorithms. Think about whether you have a chance of winning? You may occasionally see some MACD, KDJ, or BOLL indicators doing something at a certain price and develop a habitual mindset, leading you to use these indicators to find your entry points and stop-loss or take-profit levels. If you are right, there are only two possibilities: either it is a coincidence, or the dealer wants you to see that level. Otherwise, how would you have the concept of so-called support and resistance levels in your mind?
You can find all sorts of random indicators on the platform, but have you ever noticed that the platform never provides you with something called 'market depth'? It only gives you a chart that looks like two mountains for you to guess. It will never provide you with real market depth data because it knows that once you see where the active orders are, where the liquidations occur, and where the vacuum quotes are, everyone sees these and is going in the same direction, then the market would be unbalanced, right?
After saying so much and denying so many of your previous understandings, I cannot tell you what to rely on when trading in this market. I can only vaguely say it is called market sense, in other words, it means going with the flow based on liquidity. Don't keep asking whether to go long or short, or whether the price will rise or fall tomorrow. If you ask others like this, you are a fool. If someone can tell you the future trend, then he is also a fool. Don't think in terms of price, think in terms of market dynamics, find liquidity areas and areas where liquidity is lost to make your logical judgments, and speculate on the dealer's intentions.
