2025-08-15 Night Line Supplementary Views

It seems that the reconciliation between Russia and Ukraine has fallen into a passive situation, but such things should not affect the overall market like this, after all, missiles were flying everywhere before, and the market still rose as it should.

Besides Ethereum, Bitcoin and SOL have both broken key positions, showing weakness in the bulls.

SOL either needs to go to the lower position or return to 187 to hold a line, otherwise it is not recommended to guess the bottom.

On the Ethereum side, continue to observe the defense situation at the 4400 position.

The current stopping position of Bitcoin is a previous consolidation peak, and I do not believe this place has strong support; the strongest support is still at the previous 1157-1161 range.

Do you remember what I said yesterday and the day before?

If you want to go long, you need to wait for a 4-hour bullish engulfing to complete before entering when switching lines, with a stop loss placed at 0.3-0.5% below the previous 4-hour candle's lower edge, or wait until a double bottom forms during consolidation before entering when switching lines.

Here’s an additional note: if after entering the market, a reverse bearish engulfing occurs (on the 4-hour level), and the 15-minute candle still cannot form a bullish line, you either exit or reduce your position by half.

For those holding short positions, you can start to gradually reduce your position; don’t hold on when the market goes down, and then feel bad when it goes up. If you're afraid of reducing too much and then the market drops, you can reduce by 1/10 or 1/6. This way, you can effectively raise your liquidation price. If the price goes up again, you can buy back half of the reduced position, increasing your holding price.

If the bottom consolidation is completed and there is a clear bullish trend again, you might consider taking a hedge position, reducing longs and adding shorts after the market rises to offset losses.

It can't just continue to drop for three days, right? If it does, we need to be wary of a spike on Monday's daily line.