I firmly believe that this round of the crypto cycle is driven by U.S. government policies.
Just last week, Trump signed an executive order regarding 401(k) retirement fund investments, allowing a portion of retirement funds to be invested in private equity, real estate, and even digital assets. If we pull the timeline back a few weeks, the GENIUS Act was officially passed, paving the way for stablecoin regulation; this month, the SEC also changed its stance, boldly proclaiming its intention to implement 'Crypto Everything.' From stablecoins to DeFi, from on-chain identity to tokenized assets, almost every segment is being reintegrated into the U.S. regulatory system.
This is not a minor adjustment, but a redirection of capital structure. The U.S. is doing one thing: integrating crypto into the dollar system as the next phase of financial growth engine.
Today, let's start discussing what the U.S. government intends to do, and which tracks crypto enthusiasts should pay more attention to in order to maximize their benefits.
What exactly is the U.S. government planning?
The direction of this round of policies is neither 'liberalizing trading' nor 'allowing speculation,' but rather a systemic reconstruction: systematically integrating crypto assets into the U.S.-led financial structure through American-led regulatory and financial frameworks. This sounds abstract, but the connections have become very clear from several recent key actions.
A critical step is the passage of the GENIUS Act, marking the first time in U.S. history that a federal law has been established for 'payment-based stablecoins.' The U.S. government has defined the model for 'compliant dollar stablecoins' and opened the door to the financial system for them. This means that stablecoins are no longer a gray patch on the chain but can be integrated into the monetary policy framework as financial instruments. Stablecoins backed by government bonds can be used for cross-border payments, banks can use them for liquidity management, and even enterprises can use them for accounting. This is a genuine institutional authorization.
At the same time, the SEC has quietly completed its shift in attitude. They have launched 'Project Crypto,' with the goal not to expel the industry, but to 'bring it under management' using the existing legal framework. They are now willing to acknowledge: not all tokens are securities, and they are preparing to introduce a unified standard. They are also promoting a major initiative: bringing on-chain trading platforms, stablecoins, DeFi, and RWA issuance into the registration framework. This Crypto Everything plan focuses on three core aspects: 1. Unified regulatory criteria, 2. Capturing compliant funds, 3. Providing a 'controllable role' for the on-chain world. This also means that in the future, you may see: legally licensed DeFi protocols, publicly funded RWA issuance platforms, and exchanges that connect to TradFi with wallet integrations.
Therefore, what the U.S. government truly desires is not soaring coin prices, but to make this on-chain system a productive tool it can control. To allow dollars to circulate on-chain, to enable securities to be issued on-chain, and to reconstruct a new round of global order with American-style finance. This is also why I have always said: the main line of this cycle is not crypto's self-evolution, but a 'digital asset absorption plan' personally designed by the U.S. federal government.
Policies are implemented, and the market responds swiftly.
From the passage of the GENIUS Act to the signing of the 401(k) executive order today, in just a few weeks, BTC once surged to $123,000, and ETH saw a monthly increase of 54%, with highs nearing $4,000.
Let's take a look at the macro level again. In July, the U.S. crypto spot ETFs attracted a total of $12.8 billion, setting a new historical record. Among them, Bitcoin-related products accounted for nearly half, about $6 billion; ETH ETFs also performed strongly, with an inflow of $5.4 billion in a single month. Meanwhile, BlackRock's Bitcoin Trust IBIT surged to a management scale of $86 billion, even surpassing some S&P 500 component ETFs.
Traditional financial institutions are also crazily 'taking over on-chain.' The on-chain treasury bond fund BUIDL issued by BlackRock has not only seen its management scale rise to $2.9 billion, but mainstream exchanges like Crypto.com and Deribit have also begun to accept it as collateral, indicating that it can now operate within the crypto financial system for liquidity. JPMorgan has also upgraded its payment chain Onyx to a brand new on-chain settlement system called Kinexys, collaborating with clearing giant Marex to conduct the first '7×24 real-time on-chain clearing.' In plain terms, they are completely integrating what used to take days to settle in the traditional financial system into the on-chain.
Institutions are not 'exploring'; they are genuinely treating on-chain as a serious matter. You can continue to watch KOL statements, or you can look at where the money has gone. This round of market activity is not driven by narrative, but rather, after policy direction is set, funds actively find liquidity directions. Capital has already started to place bets, targeting those who can 'handle the policies.'
Which tracks will be the first to catch the policy dividend?
So which tracks will be impacted by this wave of policy dividends? Let's analyze it slowly.
This wave of opportunity is not evenly distributed; it will concentrate in a few directions. Let me give you my personal judgment: stablecoins, on-chain financial infrastructure, and the ZK track driven by compliance will be the first to reap dividends, while other sectors will have different rhythms.
The direct beneficiaries of this wave of policy dividends: stablecoins.
Stablecoins are the most direct winners in this wave of U.S. regulatory dividends. The GENIUS Act effectively issued a passport for dollar stablecoins: issuing is legal, and their identity is legitimized, finally allowing them to enter the main avenues of the U.S. financial system properly. Therefore, we also see that two sons of the Trump family entered the market ahead of the policy rollout, launching USD1 through WLFI to seize a first-mover position as the compliance era begins.
On the very day the policy was implemented, JPMorgan officially announced its pilot issuance of JPMD deposit tokens (essentially a stablecoin backed by fractional reserves) on Coinbase's Base chain. Coinbase's own stablecoin USDC has also rapidly grown under the boost of compliance benefits, adding $800 million in circulation in the past week, and has launched a crypto credit card backed by American Express, partnering with Shopify and Stripe to directly integrate USDC payments into e-commerce checkouts.
The explosion of scale is just an appetizer. The real change is the widening scope of use.
Networks like Visa and Mastercard have already incorporated stablecoins into global networks, applying them to high-frequency payments, bypassing the slow and costly fees of traditional card networks. Once compliant stablecoins are introduced into cross-border remittances, e-commerce, and in-game transactions, the efficiency improvement will be immediate. At the same time, the entrance of 'regular troops' also means a steep rise in barriers. Regulations stipulate that issuers must be regulated financial institution subsidiaries, licensed trust companies, etc., and must undergo safety assessments by financial regulatory committees.
This almost directly blocks small innovators from entering the door, and the stablecoin market will more quickly move towards oligopolization, with the confrontation among the three major camps of Circle, Coinbase, and traditional banks becoming increasingly obvious. Moreover, with regulations prohibiting interest payments to holders, the positioning of stablecoins will return to payment and value storage itself, no longer having the illusion of algorithmic coins with extremely high annualized rates.
So how can ordinary users participate in this wave of dividends?
There are indeed paths. For example, several compliant platforms are already providing reasonable yields on USDC, with safer paths and stronger liquidity, making them more suitable for stable funds: Coinbase offers approximately 4.1% APY for USDC holdings. Binance has recently launched flexible deposit products for USDC. In this promotional period, each account can enjoy up to 100,000 USDC at a maximum of 12% APR, with funds available for deposit and withdrawal at any time.
From an investment perspective, these returns are not low, and they are stable, safe, and liquid, far more practical than leaving them in exchanges without participating. Especially for cross-border users, holding stablecoins not only earns interest but also avoids exchange rate fluctuations and the complexities of traditional channels.
To summarize my judgment: this round of policies is clearing the runway for stablecoins that are compliant and robust. In the short term, dollar stablecoins and their payment applications will welcome capital influx; in the long term, they will become the ballast of on-chain finance and the core bridge for fiat currency digitalization.
Stablecoins as an entry point accelerate the development of on-chain foundational economic infrastructure.
The clarity of U.S. regulation is actually paving the way for the entire localized financial economy. The so-called 'localization' essentially means that compliant public chains and protocols will carry more U.S. institutions' business, and traditional finance will be more proactive in integrating these on-chain foundations, treating them as new infrastructure for use, which is the second track I value.
The most intuitive example is Base itself, which relies on Coinbase's compliance advantages and seamless connection with the exchange, successfully carrying an increasing number of U.S. institutions and enterprises' on-chain operations, bridging multiple tracks such as payments, applications, and asset circulation. In this trend, I am optimistic about the ecological extension capability of the Base system. In addition to promoting tokenized securities, it is also filling in applications with partners, such as collaborating with Stripe to create on-chain stablecoin payments, making Base the center of payment innovation; it also provides underlying settlement facilities for PayPal, JPMorgan, and others.
In the future, compared to using an overseas anonymous chain, U.S. payment companies, banks, and brokerages will clearly be more willing to choose this local network, which is communicable and can be addressed promptly in case of issues. Localization is essentially a compliance moat.
Base itself does not issue tokens; its traffic, value, and imagination are all realized through B3, this unique lifeline. B3 is built on Base, and the founding teams all come from Coinbase. B3 inherits the compliance system and user economic entry advantages of Base, which means that whether it's for dollar stablecoin payments, institutional settlements, or compliant narratives entering the North American market, B3 has an unparalleled first-mover advantage. This type of foundational infrastructure for on-chain finance will have a massive appeal to high-quality assets looking to go on-chain and operate efficiently for the long term, especially as Base experiences a surge in large-scale applications, B3 will become the first choice for these applications to land and scale.
Additionally, I have a good understanding of the B3 team; they operate very steadily, not only refining their products but also continuously expanding externally. I will keep a bit of suspense here. It is certain that after the announcement of heavyweight collaborations in the future, B3's position in the industry will become clearer.
Looking ahead, I don't think this is just an isolated case. As regulations continue to improve, more traditional giants will take the path of JPMorgan and Coinbase, and perhaps in the future, we will see many large institutions issuing on-chain bonds, insurance companies managing policies on-chain, and tech giants issuing corporate stablecoins for internal settlements... After all, every big client is a stable cash flow source for on-chain infrastructure.
Of course, this will also raise the requirements: performance must withstand massive transactions, privacy must protect corporate data, and compliance must incorporate auditing and risk control into the system. In simple terms, this wave of U.S. policies is pushing on-chain infrastructure from the past 'wild international growth' toward 'localized meticulous farming.' In this upgrade, local compliant chains and modular innovation networks will be the biggest beneficiaries.
ZK: New Infrastructure for Privacy in Policy Vision
Which sectors that were once declared 'dead' may迎来 their second chance? For example, ZK.
On August 13, the surge of OKB exploded on Twitter and various communities. The price of the coin rose from 46 to nearly 120, almost tripling. This wave of increase is not only due to OKX's one-time destruction of 65.25 million historical repurchase and reserved OKB, which eliminated some past potential selling pressure. The X Layer upgrade also compounded structural changes on both the supply and demand sides, with OKB becoming the only Gas Token of the X Layer, directing traffic across wallets, exchanges, and payment scenarios.
Supply contraction + concentrated demand has made the market suddenly realize the scarcity and utility of OKB are amplified, leading to a short-term burst of capital rush and emotional resonance. Another variable in trading is compliance expectations. The market has been closely watching the dynamics of 'OKX preparing to list in the U.S.', thus harboring imaginations about its entry into the U.S. market, though whether it can materialize depends on U.S. regulatory policies.
My attitude towards this sector is very clear: no FOMO, keep observing. ZK is likely to find its revival opportunity in the compliance era, though it may just be a brief turnaround. Regardless, its movements are worth keeping an eye on.
The latest U.S. digital asset report has stated that individuals should be allowed to conduct private transactions on public blockchains, and it encourages the use of self-custody and privacy-enhancing technologies to reduce the risk of on-chain data leakage. The White House's 2025 digital asset policy report also mentions that ZK is the key pathway to balance privacy and compliance. This change of attitude is interesting; previously, privacy coins and mixers were on the regulators' 'blacklist,' but now decision-makers acknowledge that to attract more traditional funds onto the chain, the shortcoming of 'on-chain privacy' must be addressed, and ZK is a ready-made solution.
In the enterprise application end, Google Wallet has already launched a ZK age verification based on Succinct Labs: you can prove that you are over 18 years old without exposing any ID details. It sounds very Web2, both KYC compliant and privacy-protecting, but this time it runs on-chain.
The underlying Succinct has thus been pushed into the spotlight, and after the token $PROVE was launched, its performance has been relatively good compared to other recent projects, outperforming many altcoins in the recent market. This case illustrates one thing: when top tech companies and real business scenarios begin to utilize ZK, the market's patience will return.
I understand the revival of ZK, not just as an emotional rebound, but as an inevitable demand of the compliance era. After assets and transactions are migrated on-chain, companies cannot accept all business details being exposed to competitors, and individuals are also reluctant to have their financial trails become transparent.
Regulatory requirements are also very clear. Auditable items must be auditable, and traceable items must be traceable. This seemingly contradictory demand is precisely the stage for ZK: 'prove legality first, then hide details.' For example, large interbank settlements can use ZK to verify that transactions comply with anti-money laundering regulations without disclosing who the customers are. Such scenarios will increase in the future: identity verification, credit scoring... all of these may be reshaped by ZK. Many high-quality ZK projects have not yet issued tokens, but the policy window may prompt them to accelerate their implementation.
In the last cycle, top ZK teams continuously raised funds, but many secondary performances were 'from kings to ruins,' driving the heat of the ZK track to a freezing point. In this round, is there a chance to reverse the impression that 'ZK's secondary market is doomed'?
I think we can focus on two types of targets: one type is those teams that have not yet issued tokens and have solid technical reserves and implementation capabilities; the other type is those that have already issued tokens but have a healthy chip structure and are effectively advancing their business. For me, this sector is worth observing in the short term. Although it is not yet at the point where I can blindly invest heavily, it is not ruled out that a few winners may emerge along the way.
Policy is set, and a new pattern is set to sail.
As an investor who looks at sectors long-term, I am very clear: once the regulatory shoe drops, the structural opportunities in the market will start to rearrange. The clarity of U.S. policies this time is genuinely changing the flow of funds and the order of the industry.
In the short term, the inflow of funds and bullish sentiment brought by compliance benefits have already allowed some sectors to outperform the market; stablecoin issuers and tokenized market caps have provided the market with intuitive feedback in terms of price and trading volume. This is just the first wave of capital testing. More importantly, it is the long-term reshaping of the landscape. When the rules are clear and the barriers are well-defined, truly valuable tracks will settle down. Conversely, those that are detached from real demand and rely solely on speculative games will find less and less room to survive in a strongly regulated environment, and industry resources will flow towards more meaningful directions.
I personally firmly believe: the real opportunity lies in complying with structural changes: in the short term, observe policies and capital flows to find points of entry that align with the trend; in the long term, identify which tracks can synchronize with future financial and technological developments. I view this round as the 'fourth phase moment of the internet' for the crypto industry; interested parties can refer to my previous article on the development path of the Web3 industry: back then, the internet was characterized by rule establishment and technological transformation, with short-term growing pains, but ultimately leading to a larger, healthier ecosystem.
The current crypto industry is bidding farewell to the chaotic growth of the barbaric era, moving towards a mature phase with rules to follow. Those who can seize the policy dividend during this window period will have better chances of securing a position in the next phase of the landscape.
New pathways have been laid out, and those who go with the wind will reach the future faster.
