A sharp drop is not scary; what is scary is responding with the wrong strategy. On August 15, the ETH flash crash was not just a simple pullback; it was triggered by technical overbought conditions leading to programmatic stop-losses, combined with 37 whales selling simultaneously, and the rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. This triple pressure caused market sentiment to spiral out of control.

First, consider the logic behind the market. Technically, ETH encountered a downward trend line pressure at 4794, which has been in place since March 2025, with the upper Bollinger Band and RSI overbought (78) triggering quant trading sell orders. A total of $120 million in long positions in the 4700-4800 USD range were triggered, causing liquidations to spread like dominoes. On-chain data is even less optimistic, with Lido un-staking 87,000 ETH in a single day, and whales with more than 100,000 ETH net withdrawing 123,000 ETH, raising concerns among institutions about the inflation rebound post-Dencun upgrade. On the macro side, CPI data exceeding expectations has raised the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in September to 61%, leading to capital withdrawal from cryptocurrencies, compounded by the SEC lawsuit against Coinbase's staking services, which has intensified selling pressure.

To break even, you need to operate according to the situation. For heavy investors with positions over 50%, a staircase-style reduction is necessary: sell 20% for every 2% price rebound until below 30%. For light investors (positions below 30%), use a pyramid approach to average down: buy 10% at the current price of 4451, buy another 10% if it falls below 4300, and buy the last 10% at 4150, aiming for an average cost around 4300, to break even at 4600.

From a technical perspective, look for stabilization signals: the daily candle has a long lower shadow, the lower shadow is twice as long as the body, trading volume has increased to 1.5 times the average of the previous 5 days, and the RSI has recovered from the oversold area to above 40. At this point, you can pay attention. If it stabilizes above 4500 and MACD shows a golden cross, build positions in batches to 50%, targeting 4800 with a stop loss at 4350.

In terms of derivatives, buying put options with a strike price of 4400 (premium about 1.2%) can hedge risks. You can also engage in inter-period arbitrage by selling September contracts and buying December contracts on Bitfinex, locking in profits with the time-price difference. Long-term holders can transfer ETH to Lido staking, take stETH to earn interest on Aave with an annual rate of 6.8%; or invest $5000 monthly on the 15th for 6 months, bringing the cost down to 4200, and making 11.9% profit when it rebounds to 4700.

To avoid pitfalls, remember five iron rules. The stop-loss line is a lifeline; a single loss cannot exceed 5% of the principal; leverage should not exceed 3 times, especially with the current volatility at 60%, as high leverage is too dangerous; be alert to on-chain signals: if net outflows from exchanges exceed 50,000 ETH for three consecutive days, and the stablecoin to ETH exchange rate exceeds 1.2, and miner holding changes exceed 5%, pay attention; monitor macro policies: reduce positions by 30% 24 hours before the Federal Reserve decision, and operate cautiously before the EU MiCA bill vote and the release of US CPI data; avoid emotional trading: if you incur losses, stop and cool down for 24 hours, and keep a trading diary to avoid repeating mistakes.

Operational control requires skill. The safe position calculation formula is account balance × 2% divided by current price volatility. For example, with a principal of $100,000 and ETH averaging a daily volatility of $300, the safe position is 6.6 ETH; don't go all-in. For entry, look for EMA12 crossing above EMA26, RSI above 50, and trading volume doubling; for exit, look for EMA12 crossing below EMA26, RSI below 50, and trading volume shrinking to the average of 50%. Hedging can be done with spot plus futures; if holding 10 ETH, sell 5 perpetual contracts, or use 10% BTC for risk management.

A sharp drop is a litmus test for strategies. ETH has short-term support at 4350 and resistance at 4600. Follow me for a pre-warning before the next sharp decline. Like and bookmark for real-time strategies; the market lacks opportunities, but it lacks methods to respond to crises.

Investing in cryptocurrencies is highly risky; this article does not constitute advice. Ensure good position management and store assets in a hardware wallet.

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