Crypto enthusiasts, pay attention! On August 22 at 10 PM, the fluctuating expectations for interest rate cuts in September will finally come to a major conclusion.



1. Powell's Speech: Full Analysis of Time and Place

Key Time Point: On August 22 at 10 PM Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at the global central bank's annual meeting in Jackson Hole.


Speech Theme: Economic Outlook + Policy Framework Assessment, simply put, it's the ultimate forecast of 'Will there be a rate cut in September? If so, by how much?'


Why is this so important? Recently, the U.S. economy has been like a split personality: on one hand, tariffs are driving up inflation, with PPI soaring 3.3%, hitting a three-year high; on the other hand, the job market is cooling, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. The crypto world fears this kind of chaos—good news and bad news can flip at any moment!




Market Betting: 25 basis points or 50 basis points?

Mainstream Expectation: The probability of a 25 basis point cut in September is over 85%, equivalent to a pain-relieving medication.


Wild Betting: U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant hints at a possible 50 basis point cut! The reason is that the employment data has collapsed more severely than expected, with job growth stagnating almost completely from May to July.


But be careful! Morgan Stanley warns: Powell may pour cold water on this, focusing on crushing market fantasies about a 50 basis point cut.

Old Zhao's View: Besant and Powell are like a duet, one signals and the other nets, don't let the crypto crowd be harvested like leeks!




Crypto Trading Guide: Keep an eye on these 3 signals

Signal 1: U.S. Dollar Index

After PPI data, the dollar surged by 0.5%. If Powell speaks hawkishly again, the dollar's rise will suppress Bitcoin.


Signal 2: Government Bond Yields

10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks above 4.29%. If it continues to rise, non-interest-bearing assets like gold and Bitcoin will be under short-term pressure.


Signal 3: Fear Index

The current market has fluctuating expectations for interest rate cuts. Volatility is a friend to crypto traders—make sure to set stop losses!

How much do you think the rate will be cut in September? 25 points or 50 points? Or will Powell flip the table and not cut at all? Let's discuss in the comments!


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