When the Federal Reserve Chair speaks, the crypto market trembles—Powell's 8·22 speech could be the most perilous 'life and death' situation for the crypto market in 2025!
Why is this speech considered 'nuclear bomb-level'?
Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting, considered the 'Policy Preview' of the Federal Reserve. In 2022, Powell took a hawkish stance here with the phrase 'Inflation won't die, interest rates won't stop', directly triggering a global asset crash, with Bitcoin halving in six months; in 2013, Bernanke hinted at QE3 here, causing gold to soar by 9% in a month.
This year is even more perilous: Trump calls for rate cuts every day, even suggesting 'to replace the Federal Reserve Chair'; the US unemployment rate has surged to a four-year high, but inflation remains stuck above 3%; the market has already gone 'crazy'—an 89% probability of a rate cut in September, as if the Federal Reserve will open the floodgates tomorrow.
But history tells us: Powell's words are deceivers. In his first six important speeches, the S&P 500 fell five times, with an average drop of over 3%. If he 'flips' again this time, Bitcoin may directly break through the support level of $100,000, and altcoins will see bloodshed.
Three scenarios, which one is the most dangerous?
1. Hawkish Raid: Bitcoin 'Flash Crash' Warning
If Powell says 'Inflation is not dead yet, don't rush to cut rates', the market will instantly collapse.
2. Dovish Fantasy: Short-term Carnival, Long-term Hidden Danger
If Powell clearly states 'September rate cut', Bitcoin could surge to $150,000, but don't celebrate too early—'Buy the rumor, sell the news' is Wall Street's old routine.
3. Ambiguous Tai Chi (30% probability): Institutions' 'Harvesting' Feast
Most likely, Powell will play a game of Tai Chi: 'Rate cuts depend on data, we are not in a hurry to express opinions.' This kind of 'expectation management' essentially lets the market guess for itself, leading to soaring volatility and a double explosion of bulls and bears.
History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme—In 2013, Bernanke ignited QE3, causing gold to skyrocket; in 2022, Powell struck hawkishly, leading to a Nasdaq crash. This time, when the White House begins to calculate 'buying BTC to fill the treasury', and sovereign fund crypto allocations soar to 1.2%, Powell's 8·22 speech may not only be a turning point for the crypto market but also a signal of 'surrender' from traditional finance.
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