Last night at 20:30, the dual impact of initial jobless claims + PPI data led to a 300-point plunge in ETH! But note—bad news fully absorbed means good news! After the data was released, the market entered a bizarre sideways consolidation; short energy is temporarily exhausted, and the main forces are building strength in the shadows. Are retail investors cutting losses at this moment? Exactly what institutions want!
Market breathing after the data storm: a subtle moment when bad news has been fully absorbed
The U.S. economic data released last night at 20:30 was like a boulder thrown into a lake: initial jobless claims unexpectedly came in lower than expected, combined with PPI annual rate rebounding beyond expectations, a double whammy instantly breached the market's psychological defenses. ETH's price promptly plummeted by $300, putting the bullish defense line at risk. However, it is worth noting that once the panic sentiment subsided, the market fell into a bizarre sideways consolidation—not a balance of bullish and bearish forces, but more like a brief calm before the storm.
From a technical perspective, ETH is currently operating within a classic 'triangle convergence' structure. This formation resembles a compressed spring, with each fluctuation accumulating breakthrough energy. The Bollinger Bands on the 1-hour chart have narrowed to the tightest level in nearly three months, and the MACD indicator shows faint green bars below the zero axis, all suggesting that the countdown for short-term directional choice has begun. More noteworthy is the precise game of Fibonacci retracement levels: the current price is precisely caught between the 50% and 38.2% retracement levels, with the upper level of $4730 acting as strong resistance at the 100% retracement level, while the lower level of $4550 represents the 'bull-bear lifeline' at the 23.6% retracement level—breaking this level could trigger a chain sell-off from programmed trading.
The psychological game of the bull-bear fortress: who is directing this drama?
$4730 is by no means a normal resistance level. If the price effectively breaks through, it will trigger a chain closing of many short stop-loss orders, forming an accelerated upward trend of 'short-squeeze'; while if $4550 is lost, panic sentiment in the market will completely spiral out of control, with the observation of bottom-fishing funds and the liquidation of leveraged bulls possibly resulting in a 'double kill,' driving prices into the abyss of $4400. Behind such extreme market conditions lies the meticulous layout of main funds: while retail investors get entangled in 'bull-bear confusion' due to short-term fluctuations, institutions are secretly completing their chip collection—every step, from the buying support during sharp declines to the shakeout during sideways movements, hides profound secrets.
Survival guide from a fiscal month perspective: How to capture turning points during fluctuations?
Combining the theory of 'Zhongshu' technical analysis, the current market is in the final stage of 'central oscillation.' A 'false breakdown' inducement may occur in the short term: the price may rapidly probe below $4600, creating an illusion of a 'crash' and forcing panic selling to emerge. Once the main force completes accumulation at low levels, a violent rally within 48 hours may start, targeting the critical resistance level of $4730.
Tonight's operational strategy:
Radical investors can gradually position long positions below $4600, with a stop loss if it breaks below $4580;
If the price breaks through $4730 and stabilizes, one can reverse and position short, targeting $4650, with a stop loss set above $4750;
Extreme situations require caution: if $4550 is effectively lost, decisively pursue shorts, targeting $4400, with a stop loss at $4570.
The market punishes different emotional weaklings, but always rewards the clear-headed.
The allure and cruelty of the crypto market lie in its ever-changing uncertainty. When candlesticks are pulled back and forth at critical positions, and when news and technicals collide fiercely, the real winners are often those calm observers who can penetrate the surface and grasp the pulse of market sentiment. Tonight's ETH may be nurturing the most exciting turning point of the month—will it become the 'chopped leek' or the 'hunter' seizing the opportunity? The answer lies in the moment you press the trade button.
