Good morning, everyone! The crypto space has erupted since the release of Coinbase's latest report. This report directly addresses potential changes in the Q3 market, focusing on three key points and offering reminders for subsequent operations:
1. Altcoins: Q3 may initiate an 'altcoin season', be wary of 'false fire' signals.
The report suggests that Q3 funds may shift from Bitcoin (BTC) to mid and small-cap coins like SOL and DOGE, potentially initiating an 'altcoin season'. However, it is crucial to note the key verification threshold: **Among the top 50 altcoins, over 75% must outperform BTC** to prove that market risk appetite is truly established; otherwise, it may just be a 'false fire' of short-term speculative trading—do not blindly chase high prices.
2. Federal Reserve Rate Cut: $7 trillion of retail funds awaiting release, need to guard against the risk of 'expectations falling short'.
Currently, over $7 trillion of retail funds are trapped in low-interest money market funds. If the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates, some of this capital may flow into the crypto market in pursuit of higher returns. Historical data shows that during the last two rate-cutting cycles, the crypto market experienced significant increases. If a rate cut occurs this time, it is highly likely to drive market fluctuations. However, two major risks must be heeded: first, the expectation of a rate cut in September not materializing; second, a rebound in inflation data. Both could trigger short-term selling pressure, leading to a market correction.
3. Market Divergence and Asset Selection: Positive signals hide 'selling' risks, with clear differentiation among various assets.
Although currently 80% of market opinions lean towards optimism, there remains 20% of capital that holds a cautious bearish attitude. This means some funds may sell off in response to 'positive news realization', aligning with the common crypto logic of 'buying the expectation, selling the fact'. Avoid blindly following trends when the market rises. Specific asset performance may diverge:
• Bitcoin ($BTC): The short-term gains may lag behind altcoins, but it remains the core asset for institutional allocation in the long term. The liquidity spillover from interest rate cuts will provide support.
• Major Altcoins: If ecosystems (such as DeFi, NFT) remain active, they are expected to achieve excess returns. However, overvalued MEME coins may easily correct due to speculative overheating, so be cautious of becoming the 'bag holder'.
• Crypto Stocks: If market trading volume increases, it may rise with industry enthusiasm, but changes in compliance policies could directly amplify risks, requiring close attention to regulatory dynamics.
Operational Recommendations
• Short-term: Focus on observing the 'altcoin to $BTC exchange rate' over the next 60 days. If it continues to strengthen, consider gradually positioning in current strong sectors like DePIN and AI; reduce high-leverage positions one week before the rate cut to guard against 'liquidation' risks caused by market fluctuations.
• Long-term: Prioritize selecting assets with solid ecosystems and strong compliance, avoiding purely chasing short-term enthusiasm, and reducing speculative allocation proportions.
For those looking to recover losses, pay attention to Teacher A Fei, who will guide you through the bullish wave.
