- Old Zhu's deep analysis of the nuclear impact of the US-Russia 'Alaska Talks' on the crypto market
Global attention focuses on Alaska! Two strongmen meet behind closed doors, the fate of Ukraine and the $30 trillion crypto market are connected tonight!
Explosive news: A high-risk game rewriting geopolitical rules
'Bare-talk' mode ignites global anxiety
Trump and Putin held a one-on-one meeting at Elmendorf Air Force Base at 11 AM Alaska time (3 AM Beijing time on the 16th) without translators or teams, focusing on the Ukraine ceasefire agreement. Six European countries are collectively furious, urgently declaring 'do not sell out Ukraine', while Turkey proposes a four-country summit to save the situation - this secret meeting has become a power struggle among the US, Russia, and Europe!
Putin's trump card VS Trump's calculations
Putin sticks to three major conditions: recognition of Eastern Ukraine territories, Ukraine's permanent non-entry into NATO, and a full lift of sanctions; Trump, however, jumps back and forth - praising Putin as a 'genius' at the beginning of the year, calling him a 'prodigal' in July, and hinting at using 'land swaps' to break the deadlock. If an agreement is reached tonight, the lifting of Russian oil sanctions will trigger a collapse in crude oil prices (Brent has fallen for seven days in eight days); if the talks fail, global risk aversion will surge to a nuclear level!
Coin circle nuclear explosion point: The watershed of 120,000 bitcoins
Peace agreement = Altcoin carnival?
Positive scenario: If the US and Russia jointly declare a ceasefire, global risk assets will violently rebound. Altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), SOL, ADA may surge (historical data shows altcoins average over 30% rise during periods of geopolitical easing).
Bearish logic: Expectations of oversupply in crude oil (oil prices have dropped 10% this year) may lead to a sell-off of energy-related computing power tokens (like FIL); some funds may shift from Bitcoin to traditional stock markets.
Negotiation breakdown = Bitcoin's return to dominance
Surge in demand for safe havens: The resurgence of war risks will trigger buying of 'digital gold'. During the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, BTC's weekly trading volume surged by 275%. If a black swan emerges tonight, BTC may hit a new high of 130,000!
Escalation of sanctions: The US has secretly targeted Russian cryptocurrency exchanges (like Garantex). If additional sanctions are imposed on Russia after the talks, privacy coins (XMR, ZEC) and cross-chain bridge protocols will face precise strikes, but the traffic of decentralized exchanges (DEX) may surge!
Ultimate dark horse: Oil and gas powers turning to crypto settlements
Russia has long used cryptocurrency to bypass sanctions in oil trade. If the talks signal a loosening of Russian energy exports, the cross-border settlement volume of oil coins (like Petro) and stablecoins (USDT, USDC) will explode - this could be the biggest compliance opportunity of 2025!
Old Zhu's critical strategy: Focus on three major indicators tonight
Time window: Talks start at 3 AM + White House briefing at 7 AM (policy details set the market direction).
On-chain data:
Large on-chain BTC transfers (>1 million USD) suddenly increase → Institutions bet on safe havens
USDT market cap fluctuates over 1% in half an hour → Signal of speculative fund adjustments.
Liquidation warning: Current BTC leverage rate is as high as 0.35%, price fluctuations over 5% will trigger $1 billion level liquidations! Avoid naked long and short positions!
Old Zhu's ultimate call:
- Radicals: Early positioning in ETH call options + Russian concept tokens (like Waves)
- Conservatives: 50% position in BTC for hedging + 50% in U buying the panic dip
Tonight, either blood will flow like rivers or the wealth train will speed - do you bet on peace or war? Quick comment! #TrumpPutinShowdownInCrypto
Appendix: Coin circle offense and defense map before and after the talks
Opportunities and risks coexist in the coin circle; staying vigilant and seizing the right moment is key. Follow me for information and in-depth analysis!