In the global investment community, the names Buffett, Dalio, and Soros are like a 'stabilizing force'. They have become benchmarks for countless investors, thanks to their profound insights into market rules, accurate trend judgments, and extensive practical experience in successfully avoiding crises. Recently, however, these three legendary investors, who often have differing views, have rarely reached a consensus — that within the next three years, the world may face the largest economic collapse in history. This warning is like a bombshell, sparking widespread attention and discussion in global financial markets and investment fields, prompting more people to examine the hidden risks in the current global economic system.
Buffett: High corporate debt + weak consumption, the 'foundation' of the economy hides a crisis.
As the 'stock god', Buffett has always adhered to the principle of 'value investing', adept at capturing trends from subtle changes in corporate operations and macroeconomic conditions. In recent years, he has repeatedly expressed concerns about corporate debt issues in the United States and globally in public forums. According to data from the Institute of International Finance, by the end of 2024, global non-financial corporate debt has surpassed $130 trillion, reaching a historic high, with U.S. corporate debt accounting for over 35%. Many companies' debt coverage ratios (EBITDA / interest expenses) have fallen below 1.5 times, entering a 'danger zone'. Buffett pointed out that the large-scale monetary easing by global central banks post-pandemic has triggered a corporate 'borrowing frenzy', with many companies using funds for stock buybacks and inflating stock prices rather than investing in R&D or expanding effective capacity. This kind of 'false prosperity' will quickly reveal a debt crisis once the financing environment tightens.
At the same time, the weakness in the consumer market has also made Buffett cautious about the economic outlook. Taking the U.S. as an example, in the first half of 2025, the personal savings rate in the U.S. dropped to 2.1%, the lowest in nearly a decade, while the consumer credit default rate rose by 23% year-on-year, and the credit card delinquency rate exceeded 5%. The financial report of Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway shows that the revenue growth rate of its consumer-related stocks (such as Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble) has fallen below expectations for three consecutive quarters. He candidly stated at the shareholders' meeting: 'Consumers are cutting back on non-essential spending, which is an important signal of economic cooling. If this trend continues, corporate profits will come under further pressure, leading to a chain reaction.'
Dalio: The inflection point of the debt cycle is approaching, and central bank policies are exacerbating risks.
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, is known for his research on the 'debt cycle'. In his book (Principles: Life and Work), he proposed that the global economy experiences a 'great debt cycle' every 75-100 years, and the world is currently at the tail end of this cycle. Dalio believes that after the 2008 financial crisis, major global economies stimulated the economy through 'printing money + borrowing', leading to a surge in government debt. By 2025, the ratio of global government debt to GDP has exceeded 120%, far surpassing the 60% international safety line.
More critically, in response to high inflation, global central banks have embarked on an aggressive interest rate hike cycle since 2022. The Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark rate from nearly zero to 5.25%-5.5%, with the European Central Bank and the Bank of England following suit, which has directly led to a significant increase in government debt repayment costs. Dalio estimates that the U.S. government's annual interest expenses will exceed $1.2 trillion by 2026, surpassing the defense budget and becoming the largest expenditure item for the federal government. 'Central banks are caught in a 'dilemma': continuing to raise interest rates will exacerbate the risk of debt defaults and may even trigger turmoil in financial markets; however, stopping interest rate hikes or cutting rates could lead to a rebound in inflation, eroding monetary credibility.' Dalio emphasizes that historical experience shows that when debt levels exceed the economic carrying capacity, and central bank policies lose room for adjustment, the outbreak of a debt crisis is merely a matter of time, and the current global economy is moving in this direction, with the next three years being a critical window.
Soros: Market bubbles coupled with geopolitical conflicts, 'black swan' events may become the trigger.
Soros, known for 'shorting the pound' and 'shorting the Thai baht', has an extreme sensitivity to market bubbles and geopolitical risks. In a recent interview, he stated that the current global financial market has multiple bubbles, including U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, and real estate. The formation of these bubbles is not based on economic fundamentals but stems from investors' 'herd behavior' and speculative psychology. By July 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 in the U.S. reached as high as 32 times, far exceeding the historical average of 15 times, while the valuations of tech giants such as Tesla and Nvidia have even surpassed historical extremes, with stock prices severely diverging from earnings; the total market capitalization of the global cryptocurrency market soared to $3 trillion in the first half of 2025, with most coins lacking practical application scenarios and purely relying on speculative trading.
Soros pointed out that the bursting of a bubble often requires a 'trigger', and the current complex geopolitical situation is a potential risk point. The ongoing escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the tense situation in the Middle East, and the intensified competition between China and the U.S. in technology and trade are factors that not only drive up the prices of commodities such as energy and food, exacerbating global supply chain disruptions, but may also trigger localized financial sanctions and abnormal capital flows. 'Once a large-scale conflict breaks out in a certain region or a systemic financial institution encounters a crisis, panic in the market will spread instantly, bubbles will accelerate their collapse, leading to a global economic collapse.'
The insight behind the consensus: Beware of risks and respond rationally.
The rare consensus among the three legendary investors is not alarmist but is based on objective analysis of global economic data, market trends, and historical patterns. Currently, the global economy faces multiple challenges, including high debt levels, fluctuating inflation, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and narrowing policy space. These risks are intertwined, and once a certain 'tipping point' is triggered, it may lead to a chain reaction resulting in economic collapse.
For ordinary investors, it is crucial to deeply understand the complexity and uncertainty of the current market, abandoning the speculative mindset of 'buying high and selling low', and rationally allocating assets. On one hand, it may be prudent to increase the holding proportion of 'safe-haven assets' such as cash and gold, reducing reliance on high-valuation stocks and high-yield bonds; on the other hand, it's essential to strengthen attention to macroeconomic data and policy trends, timely adjusting investment strategies to avoid significant losses when a crisis strikes.
For governments and central banks around the world, the warnings from the three investors also serve as a wake-up call for policy-making. The urgent task is to find a balance between controlling inflation, stabilizing debt, and promoting economic growth, avoiding extreme policies; at the same time, enhancing international cooperation to jointly address global challenges such as geopolitical risks and climate change, maintaining the stability of global supply chains and financial markets, and creating a favorable environment for economic development.
The next three years will be a critical period for whether the global economy can 'survive the tribulation'. Although the consensus of the three legendary investors conveys a strong signal of crisis, it does not mean that 'doomsday is upon us'. History has proven that each economic crisis serves as a 'stress test' for the global economic system and an opportunity for industrial upgrading and restructuring. Only by remaining vigilant and responding rationally can we seek opportunities amid crises and smoothly navigate this critical phase.
