Matrixport: Multiple positive factors may drive asset prices up to 2026

According to news from HashWorld, Matrixport's latest research report indicates that the U.S. market is experiencing a new phase of liquidity release. Structural funding support may drive the prices of Bitcoin and other risk assets to continue rising, with expectations for the trend to last until 2026. The current funding structure, credit environment, and policies are very similar to the early stages of past bull markets: ample liquidity, improved credit conditions, and a dovish policy shift are collectively pushing asset prices upward. The U.S. money market fund has seen its scale surge to a historic high since the fourth quarter of 2018, increasing from $3 trillion to $7.4 trillion, with an annual interest income reaching $320 billion, constituting a significant inflow of funds into high-yield assets. At the same time, corporate buybacks are also accelerating significantly. The announced buyback amount after 2025 has reached $984 billion, and the full-year scale is expected to exceed $1.1 trillion. Currently, volatility is at a low level, and this capital will continue to flow into the U.S. stock market, driving up valuations. The structure of the financial system is further amplifying the impact of liquidity. Since 2008, the Federal Reserve has begun paying interest on reserves to banks, with this amount currently reaching $3.4 trillion and generating an annual interest of $176 billion. In the current high-interest rate environment, this mechanism makes money market funds and commercial banks the main beneficiaries. The pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has lagged behind market expectations for 32 consecutive months, and to close this gap, approximately 62 basis points of cumulative cuts are still needed in the coming months. Credit issuance is beginning to warm up. Since April 2025, U.S. commercial and industrial loans have increased by a total of $74 billion, indicating early signs of a new credit expansion cycle. Since June, credit spreads have continued to narrow, and the financing environment has improved, which historically has been positive for Bitcoin; this trend has also been reflected in Bitcoin's price performance. Inflation is expected to gradually fall back to the Federal Reserve's target range of 2%, with volatility tending to converge, providing more ample policy space for a rate cut in September. The fiscal side is also injecting liquidity by increasing bond issuance. Since the 'Great Beautiful Act' raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, the Treasury has net issued $789 billion in government bonds in less than six weeks. This round of massive bond issuance coincides with the start of a new round of price increases for Bitcoin. Historically, during the fiscal expansion cycle of Trump's inflationary period, Bitcoin prices often strengthened in tandem with government bond issuance.