How to Lock in ARB 'Golden Pit' After the Market's Startling Drop? Three-Step Dragon Catching Strategy Exposed!

Summary in One Sentence: After a sharp 7% drop in ARB's daily price, it has landed perfectly within the 'double insurance' zone of the two-week value center and the lower Bollinger Band, with the funding rate turning negative, contract positions decreasing, and extreme bearish sentiment, the short-term mean reversion window has opened.

Key Interval Structure

• Value Anchor: POC 0.5217, with the upper HVN 0.5243-0.5297 forming the first resistance wall, and the lower HVN 0.5163-0.5189 providing a buffer.

• Low Volume Gap: LVN 0.4894-0.4921 and 0.5619-0.5699 are quick crossing zones; once a breakout occurs with volume, it can be followed.

• 70% Trading Area: 0.3793-0.5512, with the current price at 0.5172 slightly above the range, showing no overbought condition.

Momentum Verification: Up Volume near POC 55%, not reaching 60% but above the central mean; Up Volume 79% in the LVN 0.4894 range indicates bulls are actively buying low.

Auxiliary Indicators: MA200 0.4638, deviation 11.5%, still leaning bullish in the medium term; 1h lower Bollinger Band 0.5050 has been touched, indicating short-term overselling.

Contract Holdings: 24h OI decreased by 1.8%, the long-short ratio rose from 2.12 to 2.37, with short positions actively exiting, correcting sentiment.

Market Cycle

The daily line is still in a wide upward oscillation phase; the sharp short-term drop is seen as a secondary pullback within the medium-term upward trend.

Trading Strategy

Aggressive: If the price retraces to the LVN 0.489-0.492 range and shows a ≥1.5 times increase with a bullish candle, go long at market price, stop loss at 0.484 (below HVN), target 0.5217-0.5243, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.1.

Conservative: Wait for a pullback near POC 0.5217 and enter when Up Volume > 60%, stop loss at 0.516 (below HVN), target 0.5404 (above HVN), risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.8.

Cautious: If a volume breakout occurs at 0.5243 and the price retraces without breaking, chase the rise, stop loss at 0.518, target 0.55, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.6.

Risk Control: If it drops below 0.505 Bollinger lower band or OI suddenly increases > 5%, the strategy is invalid.

LP Market Making Suggestions

It is recommended to make narrow interval LP in the 0.505-0.525 range:

1) The lower edge touches the Bollinger lower band and the lower HVN, providing strong support; 2) The upper edge is close to POC and the upper HVN, ensuring ample liquidity; 3) 24h funding rate -0.00256%, negative rates reduce impermanent loss.

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