Having been in the crypto world for many years, I've seen too many cases of liquidation stemming from personal habits. Those trading logics considered 'stupid methods' are in fact the core code for navigating bull and bear markets—because the market's harshest truth is: you don't lose due to the market, but collapse due to human weaknesses.
One, the three fatal habits of retail investors
(One) The 'inertia trap' of chasing prices
When prices rise, retail investors are easily driven by 'fantasies of getting rich' and blindly chase in. Data shows that the average loss rate for chasing trades is 42%, as in rising markets, there is a 30% increase with a 20% probability of a pullback. In 2024, when BTC broke $70,000, chasing retail investors had an average cost 15% higher than the main forces and were the first to be cut during pullbacks.
(Two) The 'gambling mentality' of pressing orders
Believing in the correct direction and going 'all in', ignoring market volatility. Take ETH as an example; during a one-sided rise, the main forces will use 'pinning' (e.g., ETH pinned 10% in 2023) to wash out positions; high leverage traders will instantly be liquidated. The liquidation rate for such trades exceeds 65%, essentially handing fate over to random fluctuations.
(Three) The 'desperate gamble' of being fully invested
Driven by emotions to go all in, causing the account to lose adjustment space. Statistics show that accounts with full positions, when the market reverses, 70% explode due to the inability to supplement positions for stop losses. In 2022, LUNA's collapse caused full holders to go to zero, while those who retained some margin at least kept 30% of their capital.
Two, the six-character profit system of the 'stupid method'
(One) 'Wait': Remain still before the signal for a trend change appears
During high consolidation periods (e.g., BTC hovering around $65,000), the probability of new highs exceeds 60%; low consolidation (e.g., $30,000 range), the probability of new lows reaches 55%. Operations before volatility changes have a win rate of less than 30%.
Example: In 2023, BNB hovered around $300 for 2 weeks, then surged to $450. Those who patiently waited earned a 50% profit, while traders who entered midway suffered a 20% loss in capital during the fluctuations.
(Two) 'Quiet': During consolidation periods, maintain patience
Consolidation markets occupy 60% of market time, during which retail investors lose 70% of their capital. Data shows that accounts that frequently trade during consolidation have an average monthly return of -18%; those who remain still have a monthly return of -2% (close to breakeven). In 2024, SOL consolidated for 3 months, and frequent traders lost 35%, while holders only lost 5%.
(Three) 'Inverse': Buy on down days, sell on up days
Utilize market sentiment for counter trading:
When the market is down, retail investors panic sell (e.g., in 2023, DOGE saw a 30% increase in sell orders during down days), at which point buying increases the win rate by 40%;
When the market is up, retail investors chase prices (buying volume increases by 50%), selling can lock in profits. Backtesting shows this strategy achieves an annualized return of 32%, far exceeding random trading.
(Four) 'Discern': See the rhythm of declines, capture rebound opportunities
Slow decline (e.g., BTC average daily decline of 2%): lacks buying support, rebound height ≤ 10%;
Fast decline (average daily decline over 5%): panic selling is complete, 65% chance of a rapid rebound within 72 hours. In 2024, after a 20% rapid decline in SOL, there was a 15% rebound in 48 hours, allowing rhythm players to accurately arbitrage.
(Five) 'Divide': Pyramid position building, always leave a backup
Use the '2-3-5' incremental position building method:
Initial position 20%, confirm the trend then add 30%, and add another 50% when the market is clear;
Backtesting data: This strategy outperforms full positions by 18% in trending markets, and reduces maximum drawdown by 25%. In the 2023 ETH bull cycle, pyramid builders achieved an 80% return, while fully invested traders only achieved 62%.
(Six) 'Steady': After big rises and falls, wait for signals to set direction
After significant rises and falls, the market needs 3-5 days to consolidate and confirm direction. After BTC broke $80,000 in 2024, early gamblers had an average cost 10% higher, while those waiting for the consolidation breakout had lower costs and smaller stop losses. Data shows that trading after consolidation has a win rate 35% higher than early gambling.
Three, the underlying logic of the 'stupid method': Overcoming human weaknesses
These seemingly simple strategies are actually aimed at the three great enemies of human nature:
Greed: Through 'waiting for signals, incremental position building', curb impulsive trading;
Fear: Use 'buy on down days, sell on up days' to counteract emotional fluctuations;
Luck: 'Always keep bullets' to avoid risking everything on a full position.
In 2023, accounts tracking this strategy achieved an average annualized return of 28%, while random trading accounts only saw -12%. This confirms a truth: the essence of profitability in the crypto world is using mechanical rules to overcome human weaknesses.
Four, the key to executing the 'stupid method': forming muscle memory
Experts are not just lucky; they have turned the 'stupid method' into instinct:
Replace manual operations with 'conditional orders' (e.g., set automatic buy on down days, automatic sell on up days);
Weekly review of 'signal execution rate' to ensure over 80% of trades align with the strategy;
Account allocation management (30% long-term + 50% swing + 20% flexible), reducing the risk of a single strategy.
Opportunities in the crypto world are never lacking; what is lacking are traders who can 'stay steady and endure.' Those who laugh last do so not by luck, but by executing the 'stupid method' to the fullest—because the simplest strategies are often the hardest to stick to and the most lethal.
Remember: True experts use the simplest methods to earn the steadiest money.
Blindly going solo will never bring opportunities; follow me for insights into tenfold potential coins! Top-tier resources!
