Weekly chart of the price of XRP/USD. Source: TradingView. The XRP surge in 2020 and 2021 was heavily influenced by the near-zero interest rate environment in the U.S. The gains between 2022 and 2025 were mainly due to advancements in Ripple's litigation, greater legal clarity, the resumption of trading on exchanges, and optimism regarding ETFs.
This last one will continue to drive XRP in 2025, as the probability of a spot ETF being approved is 95%, and the token is expected to rise to $27 if approved. This aligns with Van Lagen's target.
XRP Ledger: Metrics indicate overvaluation.
The growth of the underlying chain of XRP, XRP Ledger (XRPL), is far behind other major layer 1 blockchains like Ethereum, according to DefiLlama.
Its market capitalization of $190 billion is approximately 2200 times greater than its total value locked (TVL) of $85 million. This sharply contrasts with Ethereum's ratio of about 5.6, despite XRP's valuation being nearly 40% of Ethereum's.
Since August, more than 95% of the XRP supply has remained in positive territory. This threshold consistently preceded a strong price correction during the rallies of 2020-21 and 2022-25, as shown in the Glassnode chart below.
