However, prices of $BTC above $200,000 could jeopardize this strategy. The maximum potential loss is 0.005 BTC (about $585 at the current price), while the maximum gain is 0.0665 BTC (approximately $7,750).
Another example is the 'Inverse Call Butterfly,' which involves buying a call option at $140,000, selling two call options at $160,000, and buying a call option at $200,000, all expiring in December. This position achieves maximum profit if BTC is around $160,000 on December 26, with a net profit of 0.112 BTC (around $13,050). However, losses begin to accumulate if BTC exceeds $178,500. Still, the $200,000 call option helps limit potential losses. In this case, the maximum loss is 0.109 BTC, or approximately $12,700. $900 million in Bitcoin put options are aimed at $50,000-$80,000.
A considerable open interest in call options at $200,000 does not necessarily mean that traders expect Bitcoin to reach that level. In fact, nearly $900 million in put options are positioned between $50,000 and $80,000 for the December expiration, demonstrating that there are also bearish bets at play, albeit with lower probabilities.
To illustrate market sentiment, the $140,000 call option is currently priced at around 0.051 BTC (approximately $5,940), implying a 21% probability according to the Black-Scholes model. Meanwhile, the $200,000 call option is trading at 0.007 BTC (about $814), reflecting an implied probability of less than 3%.
These aggressive strike prices may grab headlines, but the data tells a different story. Traders are not betting everything on a 72% rise. Instead, they are using very out-of-the-money call options as tools within structured strategies that offer limited risk and leveraged upside potential.
However, unlike Bitcoin options, the odds of BTC reaching $200,000 this year are higher, at 13%, according to Polymarket.
