Policy Dividend: The 'crypto-friendly' strategy of the Trump administration has provided a favorable environment for the rise of Bitcoin, such as the passage of the U.S. 'GENIUS Stablecoin Act' in the Senate procedural vote, clearing obstacles for institutional entry. Additionally, on August 7, Trump signed an executive order allowing alternative assets like private equity, real estate, and cryptocurrencies to enter 401K retirement savings plans, bringing significant funds to the Bitcoin market.
Capital Engine: The trend toward institutionalization is irreversible, with net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs exceeding $40 billion, and BlackRock's IBIT reaching $34.3 billion, surpassing its gold ETF. At the same time, listed companies increased their holdings by 131,000 Bitcoins in the second quarter, with MicroStrategy leading with a holding of 629,000 Bitcoins.
Macroeconomic Cycle: The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has risen to 94.3%, with the market betting on the start of a 50 basis point easing cycle, shifting funds from bonds to high-volatility assets. Additionally, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has reached 0.82, indicating that crypto assets have been incorporated into the mainstream risk pricing system, and changes in the macro environment have driven the rise of Bitcoin.
From a technical perspective, if Bitcoin effectively breaks through $125,000, it could push its price up to $150,000. However, risks must also be noted, as the current RSI is overbought, with BTC at 84 and ETH at 78, and miners have sold 6,200 Bitcoins in the past seven days, necessitating caution for a pullback to the support level of $120,000.
