The recent rise of Bitcoin is the result of multiple factors resonating together. On a macro level, the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September has almost become a foregone conclusion. With the dollar expected to weaken, the nominal valuation of global risk assets has been enhanced. On the policy front, the Trump administration has created a favorable environment for cryptocurrencies, with his signing of an executive order requiring the U.S. Department of Labor to explore allowing 401(k) pension plans to invest in cryptocurrencies, opening up policy space for long-term capital entry. On the funding side, institutional buying has continued to flood in, with listed companies and some large asset reserve enterprises continuously increasing their holdings of digital assets on a large scale, driving steady growth in demand. At the same time, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has also been continuously attracting institutional capital inflows. On a technical level, after Bitcoin broke through key resistance levels, it formed bullish signals and established a solid consolidation platform previously, effectively digesting the pressure.
However, the subsequent trend of Bitcoin still carries uncertainty. In the short term, the technical aspect has entered a historically high range, and short-term funds may take profits, leading to a phase of correction. In the medium to long term, its trend will depend on core variables such as macro liquidity expectations and the sustainability of institutional buying.
