Last night, a war without gunpowder at the Fed has already started—
The two fierce generals appointed by Trump, Waller and Bowman, brazenly voted against maintaining interest rates at the July meeting, openly challenging Fed Chair Powell! Bowman even remarked, 'We must cut rates three times this year,' targeting the cliff in employment data: only 35,000 new jobs in the past three months, falling to 'recession levels.' Hawkish representative Schmidt warned: 'Cutting rates now is playing with fire! Inflation remains high.'
Even more explosive, the White House has gone all out!
Treasury Secretary Basant openly pressures: 'September should cut rates by 50 basis points!' He even urgently inserted his confidant Milan into the Fed Board, trying to completely reverse the voting pattern. The market reacted, betting on a rate cut probability soaring above 90%, an epic monetary easing has entered the countdown stage.
A nuclear-level market in the cryptocurrency space is about to explode, but be careful not to be the first to get cut!
Short term (1-4 weeks): Beware of 'buy the expectation sell the fact' bloodbath
Sudden drop warning: History repeats itself! Refer to Bitcoin's 50% drop after the rate cut in March 2020; if a 25 basis point cut occurs in September, prior speculative funds will likely take profits, with a 5%-20% correction imminent.
Leverage踩踏: If Bitcoin surges to $130,000 before rate cuts, concentrated long positions will trigger a wave of on-chain liquidations, and altcoins may halve overnight.
Life and death speed: Keep a close eye on Powell's August 22 Jackson Hole speech—if it releases 'dovish signals' (indicating continued rate cuts), bottom-fishing will support the market; if it turns 'hawkish' (warning about inflation), a crash is inevitable.
Medium to long term (1 month later): Two engines ignite a violent bull market
Engine 1: $10 billion level ETH ETF funding flood
If the Ethereum ETF is approved by S-1 in September (over 70% probability), $10 billion in institutional funds will sweep ETH! Refer to the daily average inflow of $300 million for Bitcoin ETF; ETH will drive the staking track (Lido) and Layer2 (Arbitrum) to surge violently.
Engine 2: Global hot money rushes into crypto assets
After rate cuts, the dollar borrowing cost plummets, hot money floods into high-risk areas. In the past three rate-cut cycles, Bitcoin's average increase exceeded 150%. Under this liquidity tsunami, a $150,000 Bitcoin is not a dream.
Three scenarios: Get rich, heavy losses, or explode on the spot
Best scenario (40% probability): September rate cut + ETH ETF passes + Inflation cools down → Bitcoin surges to $150,000, altcoin season violently begins
Volatility script (50% probability): Deteriorating economic data triggers recession panic → Mainstream coins hover, altcoins bleed heavily
Nuclear explosion script (10% probability): October CPI inflation rebound + Fed emergency brake → Cryptocurrency market halved at the start, leveraged players collectively wiped out
Retail survival manual: Either get rich or die suddenly
Don't give up short-term profits: If there is a surge before rate cuts, immediately reduce positions! Avoid leveraging to chase highs.
ETH ETF skirmish: Immediately heavily invest in ETH and ecological coins (SSV, OP); if failure, retreat completely
Black Swan alert: On October 9, when the CPI data is released, if inflation reignites, immediately liquidate to avoid risks
Nuclear-level bottom fishing: If rate cuts trigger a crash, gradually buy the dip on Bitcoin and Ethereum—during the liquidity era, leading coins are never absent
Deadly Easter egg: Rate cuts turn out to be a disaster for stablecoin giant Circle! Dragonfly investor Omar reveals: For every 1% rate cut, Circle's revenue evaporates by $618 million! Yesterday, its stock faced a $1.5 billion sell-off, forcing it to urgently launch 'Circle Chain' for survival.
Final warning: The cryptocurrency bull market relies on 'water' (liquidity), and the global water gate just opened after September. Remember, don’t panic when it drops, don’t go crazy when it rises—true bull markets always rise after a river of blood!
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