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By Amir, Web3 trend observer | Data storyteller
Real-time updates on August 14, 2025
'When the entire network is still doubting whether ETH can break the previous high, whales have already used $5.3 billion ETF to write the answer — this is not a rebound, but a breakthrough at the tipping point of financial chain reform.'
🔥 One, Current market positioning: A strong cycle where data does not lie
- Bitcoin **: Stabilizing at $119,000 (weekly increase of 3-4%), just a step away from the historical high, ETF weekly net inflow maintains strength, buying structure is robust.
- Ethereum **: 24-hour surge of 7.33%**, highest breaking $4700, reaching a new high since December 2021! Cumulative increase of nearly 80% since July, becoming the leading bull.
- Sector rotation:
- Layer2 (MNT +6.67%), AI sector (RNDR +6.64%) continue to rally;
- However, most altcoins are still lagging, market differentiation highlights the concentration of funds towards 'compliant assets', unlike the last bull-bear cycle, it seems the spring for altcoins has yet to arrive.
💡 Two, Analysis of upward driving forces: A 'new narrative logic' beyond bull and bear
(1) Policy breakthrough: Rare bipartisan cooperation in the U.S.
- Stablecoin legislative framework advancing + SEC clarifies 'staked tokens are not securities' + Banks allowed to custody crypto assets → **Remove the biggest shackles for institutional entry**.
- The Trump administration openly supports the crypto industry, shifting the policy environment from repression to embrace.
(2) Structural change in funding: from retail FOMO to consortium control
- Bitcoin: About 12% of circulation is held by traditional institutions (MicroStrategy model spreading), showing 'US stock-like' characteristics;
- Ethereum: Spot ETF net raised $5.3 billion on the 18th, corporate consortiums following suit (e.g., SharpLink purchased $1.69 billion in ETH) → Scarcity crisis intensifies.
- Comparison: Altcoins lag due to lack of liquidity support from consortiums → Funds choose to confirm 'compliance > narrative', ordinary investors seem to find it harder to profit this time with institutional entry.
(3) Technical resonance: Wyckoff model and triangle breakout dance together
- Ethereum weekly completed 'Wyckoff accumulation structure', breaking $4300 confirms accelerated wave, target pointing to $6000-8500;
- Monthly large-scale ascending triangle breakout, historical fractal suggests a conservative target of $10,000 (by April 2026).
⚠️ Three, Risk warning: Be vigilant of three major variables in the short term
1. Beware of inflation rebound: If today's U.S. July CPI exceeds expectations, it may reverse easing expectations;
2. Focus on geopolitical games: Trump-Putin meeting (8/16) may disturb risk appetite;
3. Grasp long-short game: After ETH breaks $4700, selling pressure from the $2500-2800 accumulation zone increases, need to observe the strength of the $4100 support.
🌐 Four, KOL viewpoint: Why is this time different?
> 'The last bull market relied on MEME frenzy, this round is driven by RWA (Real World Assets) landing and institutional balance sheet rewriting — when BlackRock uses staking ETFs to eat up 4% annual yield, a consensus forms in the financial society: blockchain is not a casino, it's an efficiency revolution.'
When professional institutions entered the market, unlike the past 🧱 families, where should retail investors go in the future? My view is to grasp the long-short game, go with the trend, and only then can relative profits be made in this bull market.
✨ Next issue preview
(Ambush the next hotspot: Insights into policy dividend coins from Trump's holdings)
- Decryption: On-chain tracking techniques for politician investment portfolios
- Prediction: Intersection of chip legislation and AI + blockchain
> 'Like and share this article, leave your holding strategy, draw 3 people to give away (long-short signal comparison table) — in a bull market, do not guess the top, but use discipline to outperform 95% of people'
This article does not constitute any investment advice.
