No doubts on $BTC

Key Points:

Bitcoin’s network activity surged, with active addresses up 8% and transaction fees rising 10%, signaling growing demand.

Over 94% of Bitcoin’s supply is currently in profit, increasing the risk of short-term selling pressure.

Long-term holders (LTHs) and institutional whales are aggressively accumulating BTC, defying profit-taking trends.

Major players like MicroStrategy and Nakamoto have made significant new purchases, reinforcing confidence in BTC’s long-term value.

On-chain data shows record accumulation, suggesting supply is tightening amid rising institutional demand.

Price remains stable near $119,000, supported by key moving averages and neutral momentum indicators.

Technical signals hint at a potential bullish reversal if buying volume increases in the coming days.

Growing Network Activity Hints at Deeper Market Shifts

Bitcoin’s underlying network metrics are flashing signs of intensifying engagement. Last week alone, the number of daily active addresses jumped by 8%, reaching 793,000—a figure that underscores a broader reactivation of users across the ecosystem. This isn’t just idle movement. The 10% increase in average transaction fees confirms that more participants are competing to move value on the blockchain, a classic indicator of rising demand. When users pay more to transact, it typically reflects urgency, confidence, or both. These shifts don’t happen in isolation. They suggest that behind the scenes, capital is on the move, not just from retail traders but from entities with deeper pockets and longer time horizons.

What’s particularly striking is how this surge coincides with a market where nearly all coins are in profit. At 94%, the proportion of Bitcoin supply trading above its acquisition cost is dangerously high from a sentiment perspective. Historically, such levels have preceded pullbacks, as short-term traders look to lock in gains. Yet, despite this overbought condition, the network hasn’t shown signs of fragility. Instead, activity remains robust, indicating that new demand may be absorbing any selling pressure. This dynamic points to a maturing ecosystem, where speculative impulses are increasingly counterbalanced by structural buying.

Whale Accumulation Defies Conventional Market Logic

While many watch for signs of a pullback, a different story is unfolding beneath the surface. Long-term holders and large institutional investors are not stepping back—they’re accelerating their buying. On-chain analysis reveals that Bitcoin accumulation has reached an all-time high, with whales actively pulling supply off the market. This behavior runs counter to what traditional market psychology would predict. Normally, at price peaks and high-profit zones, large players begin distributing holdings. But here, the opposite is occurring. The conviction appears rooted in a belief that current valuations still underrepresent Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

Two prominent examples highlight this trend. Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy, a company that has staked its financial strategy on Bitcoin, marked five years of continuous accumulation by adding another $18 million to its treasury. That brings their total holdings to 628,946 BTC, one of the largest corporate stashes in existence. Around the same time, David Bailey, CEO of Nakamoto, publicly declared intentions to purchase $1 billion worth of Bitcoin, a move that signals not just belief but strategic positioning. These aren’t reactive trades—they’re calculated, long-term capital allocations. When entities of this scale act in unison, it reshapes the supply landscape, reducing available float and increasing the pressure on price during periods of demand spikes.

Institutional Conviction vs. Market Sensitivity

The divergence between short-term volatility and long-term accumulation reveals a market in transition. On one side, technical indicators show a price that’s stabilized but not yet breaking out. Bitcoin trades at $118,724, having recovered from a recent dip and holding above both the 9-day and 21-day simple moving averages. These levels act as psychological and technical support zones, and maintaining them suggests that dip buyers remain active. The Relative Strength Index sits at 58, avoiding overbought territory while still reflecting steady upward momentum. There’s no euphoria here—just quiet confidence.

Meanwhile, the MACD indicator shows the signal and fast lines converging, a setup that could trigger a bullish crossover if buying volume increases. This kind of technical formation often precedes acceleration, especially when supported by fundamental demand. Earlier in the week, Bitcoin briefly breached $120,000 before retreating—a sign that resistance exists but is being tested. What’s different now is the lack of panic on the downside. Corrections are being met with absorption, not capitulation. This resilience suggests that the market is being underpinned by buyers who are not easily shaken, likely those with strategic horizons far beyond the next quarterly earnings cycle.

Supply Constraints and the Road Ahead

One of the most underappreciated forces shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory is the shrinking availability of coins on the open market. As whales and long-term holders accumulate, they effectively remove supply from circulation. This creates a tightening effect, where even modest increases in demand can lead to outsized price responses. With over 94% of existing BTC in profit, the temptation to sell is widespread. Yet, the data shows that the majority of these profitable coins are not moving. That indicates a level of conviction that transcends short-term gains.

This structural shift has long-term implications. In asset markets, price is not just a function of demand but of available supply. When large holders choose to lock up their assets, they create a scarcity dynamic that can amplify future rallies. If institutional inflows continue at the current pace—if companies, funds, and macro investors keep allocating—then the gap between demand and liquid supply will widen. That imbalance could fuel the next major upward leg, not through speculation, but through fundamental scarcity. The groundwork is already being laid through relentless accumulation, quiet but consistent network growth, and a refusal to sell despite tempting valuations.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s current phase is defined by contradiction. On the surface, profit-taking risks loom large, and technical indicators remain neutral. Beneath, however, a powerful accumulation trend is reshaping the market’s foundation. Whales and institutions are not just holding—they are buying aggressively, confident in Bitcoin’s role as a long-term store of value. Network activity is rising, supply is tightening, and price stability is holding despite elevated profit levels. These factors suggest that the market is evolving from a speculative arena into a more resilient, structurally supported asset class. The next move upward may not come from hype, but from the quiet, relentless pressure of sustained, strategic demand.