The price of ETH rises against the tide in the 'main player selling' narrative, even producing large bullish candles, which confuses many investors. In fact, this seemingly contradictory phenomenon is precisely a classic operation of the main players' selling—experienced players in the capital market understand that a sharp drop often signifies the end of selling, while the rise is the main stage for selling. Just as a store would not display a 'half-price' sign at the beginning of a clearance sale, the main players would never start selling through a crash.
I. The truth of support levels: the 'cost defense line' of the main players rather than the 'market bottom'
Those support levels deemed 'indestructible' (like ETH's $2200, $2000) are essentially the 'minimum selling price' set by the main players. After ETH touched $2200 three times in 2023 and rebounded, it was not a spontaneously formed market bottom, but rather that the main players still had a large amount of chips to sell at this price level—below this price means the profit space is compressed, and might not even cover the cost of the rise, thus the main players would use funds to briefly support the price.
The signal significance of breaking the support level
False breakdown to lure shorts: During the mid-phase of selling, the main players may deliberately let the price briefly drop below the support level (e.g., from $2200 to $2180), triggering panic selling among retail investors, then quickly pulling back to complete the reverse operation of 'buying low - distributing high.' This situation often accompanies shrinking trading volume on ETH's 4-hour chart (indicating the main players have not truly exited).
The true end-stage characteristic of a breakdown: when the support level is effectively broken (with three consecutive 4-hour candlesticks closing below), and trading volume increases by more than 30%, it indicates that the main players have cleared more than 90% of their chips; at this point, the decline is merely 'inventory clearance,' akin to the 'all items at half price' on the last day of a sale, and has nothing to do with the main players' profits.
II. The three-stage script of main player selling: unloading during uptrends, wrapping up during downtrends
The main players' selling of ETH never relies on a crash; instead, it is completed through three stages, each designed to exploit the psychological weaknesses of retail investors.
First stage: pulling up while selling (luring in the next buyer)
Using 5%-10% of funds to raise the price, creating the illusion of 'continuation of the main rising wave.' In 2024, during the process of ETH rising from $2800 to $3200, the main players used the rhythm of 'pulling up - consolidating - pulling up again,' with each rise accompanied by increased trading volume (retail investors entering), and during pullbacks, trading volume shrinks (creating the illusion of main player locking up). In reality, at each high point of the rise, the main players would reduce their holdings by 3%-5% of their chips; the more bullish candles during this phase, the more actively retail investors buy the dip, facilitating the main players' selling.
Second stage: continuing to sell during consolidation (completing chip transfer in fluctuations)
When the price forms a fluctuation range at high levels (like $3200-$3400), it appears to be 'building momentum for a breakout,' but in reality, the main players are continuously distributing during the fluctuations. The characteristic of this stage is the frequent appearance of 'upper and lower shadows'—every time it touches the upper limit ($3400), the main players dump their inventory, and when it falls to the lower limit ($3200), they pull back with a small amount of funds, leading retail investors to mistakenly believe 'the support is effective,' continuously buying the dip. Data shows that when ETH consolidates above $3000 for more than 15 days, the main players have, on average, sold over 60%.
Third stage: falling while selling (clearing out old inventory using bottom-fishing psychology)
When less than 20% of chips remain, the main players start to sell slightly while the price declines. At this point, retail investors often believe 'the pullback is an opportunity,' especially when it drops to previous support levels (like $3000), attracting buying funds that catch the last chips from the main players. The decline during this stage is usually controlled within 10%-15%, avoiding panic selling while attracting retail investors looking for bargains—until the main players finish selling, a steep drop will occur, by which time retail investors are already deeply trapped.
III. The 'three viewing rules' to crack the selling puzzle
To determine whether ETH is in a selling phase, one must look beyond simple price fluctuations and focus on three core signals:
1. Observe the divergence between trading volume and price
During uptrends, trading volume increases, but the rate of increase slows (e.g., ETH rises 1% but releases 150% of the 30-day average trading volume), indicating that the main players are distributing at high levels.
During sideways markets, trading volume fluctuates dramatically (large bullish candlesticks with high volume, bearish candlesticks with low volume), which is a typical characteristic of the main players creating a false sense of activity to attract buyers.
2. Observe changes in chip concentration
By tracking on-chain data of the number of addresses holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 ETH, if this data continues to decline while the number of addresses holding less than 10,000 ETH increases, it indicates that the main players are transferring chips to retail investors. In 2021, when ETH peaked, this indicator's change predicted the completion of the sell-off three weeks in advance.
3. Observe the sustainability of capital flow
During the main players' selling phase, funds often exhibit 'impulsive inflow, continuous outflow'—after a large amount of funds inflow in a single day, there are continuous small outflows for 3-5 days, with the cumulative outflow far exceeding the inflow. This 'less in, more out' pattern is particularly evident in monitoring the main funds of ETH.
Conclusion: Jump out of the trap of price fluctuations and understand the funding competition
Every rise and consolidation of ETH is a psychological game between the main players and retail investors. Those who panic during rises and become greedy during declines fundamentally fall into the trap of 'price appearances.' When you see a bullish candle and think 'the market is here,' and see a bearish candle and conclude 'the main players are escaping,' you have become an accomplice to the main players' selling.
The real way to break the deadlock is to look at the essence through the price: be cautious of 'selling signals within bullish candles' during uptrends, pay attention to 'chip transfer during sideways markets', and distinguish between 'washing out and clearing out old inventory' during downtrends. Understanding the main players' selling script is key to protecting capital during ETH's volatility and avoiding becoming the last buyer.
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