While Bitcoin consolidates, Ethereum is secretly making big moves! This phrase is trending in the crypto space today—ETH surged past 4700 USD within the day, while BTC was still hovering around 120,000 USD at the same time. Behind this independent market movement are institutional funds and technological upgrades as dual driving forces, but the signals indicating 'main force driving up to unload' also have seasoned traders worried.
The battle between bulls and bears intensifies: 4800 USD becomes a critical level.
From a technical perspective, ETH's breakout above 4700 USD can be described as 'violent aesthetics': the upper Bollinger band was forcefully pierced, the 1-hour MACD red bars turned positive, and both the DIF and DEA lines have climbed above the zero axis—this 'weak rebound' surprisingly formed a strong shape. But seasoned traders know that the RSI is approaching the 70 overbought zone, with a dense trading area at 4693-4694 USD suppressing massive sell orders, and the 4800 USD resistance level hangs like the sword of Damocles overhead.
Institutional actions are more intriguing: Huajian Medical and HashKey Group upgrade their strategic cooperation; the global enhanced ETH vault strategy directly triggers compliance funds to enter; the net inflow of spot ETH ETF exceeds 218 million USD in a single day, with listed companies like SharpLink buying up 438,000 ETH. But retail investors should be cautious; Vitalik recently warned that 'excessive leverage could trigger a domino crisis,' and the routine of the main force pulling and withdrawing has never changed.
Data night becomes the key to market change: Crude oil inventory stirs the nerves of the crypto world.
Tonight at 22:30, the EIA crude oil inventory data will become the market's trigger. If inventory decreases more than expected, it may trigger a risk asset sell-off—after all, ETH's recent rise already carries the label of 'safe-haven alternative.' But more subtly, HyperEVM challenges Ethereum's L2 dominance with a throughput of 100,000 TPS, and the 'cyclical lending trio' composed of Aave/Pendle/Ethena is reconstructing the DeFi ecosystem, providing fundamental support that makes the 4500 USD central level exceptionally solid.
Operation strategy: Place an order to go long at 4650, and short at 4750.
Regarding tonight's market, three scenarios are ranked by probability:
Bullish breakout: Stabilizing at 4650 allows for a light long position, targeting 4750, but strong resistance is expected near 4800;
Bearish counterattack: Falling below 4600 may quickly retest 4550, at which point a long position can be taken;
Data-driven: If the EIA data ignites crude oil, ETH may take advantage to complete a range washout between 4500-4800.
Finally, key points: The 1-hour volatility has reached 8.34%, and the RSI is close to the overbought zone, don’t chase the price! Conservatives should wait for the US market data before acting, while aggressive traders can place long orders at 4650/short at 4750, with a stop loss of 50 USD. Remember: ETH is currently following a 'institutional narrative + technological upgrade' dual track; it surges while BTC consolidates, but be wary of the old routine of the main force driving up to unload—after all, the crypto world is never short of the curse of 'breakthrough means reversal.'