$ETH Ethereum price breaks through $4600, reaching the highest level since December 2021, just 5% away from the all-time peak.
Market speculative sentiment surges, driving the total amount of open interest in mainstream altcoin futures to $47 billion, setting a new historical record.
The high-leverage environment is exacerbating market volatility sensitivity—every additional $1 billion in open interest increases the price volatility amplification factor by 17% (based on CME 2021-2025 backtesting).
Current leverage accumulation has reached 138% of the level before the 2021 crash, creating significant risk exposure.
Bitcoin's on-chain health remains strong. When the price retraces to $112,000, the actual loss rate for short-term holders is only 3.2%, significantly lower than the 11.7% average in 2024. 89% of Bitcoin addresses are in profit, exceeding the bull market benchmark (85%).
Key resistance is at $127,000 (+1σ short-term holder cost basis), which has triggered an average 22% retracement during three tests in Q2 2024. If effectively broken, the upward target will point to $144,000 (+2σ level).
The options market is sending strong inverse signals. The implied volatility (IV) for all maturities has dropped to 18.7%, the lowest in three years.
Historical data shows that when the January IV is below 25%, the probability of actual volatility expansion in the following 90 days reaches 82%. Under these conditions, a long volatility strategy can achieve an annualized return of 194%, and the current value has triggered this critical point.
Ethereum faces a critical price test. There is a $420 million on-chain sell wall in the $4700 (+1σ active realized price) area (verified by Bitfinex order book), which historically has triggered strong selling pressure.
The breakout path requires attention to volume coordination: if the hourly trading volume continues to exceed $500 million, it is likely to challenge the historical high of $5100; conversely, if it consolidates with reduced volume in the $4680-$4700 range, it will increase retracement risk.
