In this wave of ETH market, institutions are the driving force, retail investors are following trends, but data is the real referee!

Technical Analysis
ETH has broken through the key resistance level of $4650, currently targeting $4720. If it can hold, it may challenge $4800 or even the historical high.
The 100-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average, forming a 'golden cross', indicating a long-term bullish trend.
If it breaks through $4800, it may trigger $124 million in short liquidations, further pushing up the price.

On-chain Data and Institutional Demand
The supply ratio on exchanges continues to decline, indicating increased confidence among long-term holders.
Strong inflow of spot ETF funds, with a net inflow of $1 billion on August 11, indicating significant institutional accumulation.
The activity of smart contracts has reached a historical high, supporting ETH demand through the growth of the DeFi and NFT ecosystems.

Impact of the Macro Environment
Expectations for a Fed rate cut in September are heating up. If economic data is weak, it may accelerate easing policies, benefiting risk assets.
Improved regulatory environment enhances institutional confidence to enter the market.

Impact of tomorrow night’s U.S. unemployment claims data, data expectations and market reactions
If the data is below expectations:
The dollar may strengthen, putting short-term pressure on ETH and other risk assets.
However, if the market interprets it as an economic 'soft landing', ETH may still benefit from a rebound in risk appetite.

If the data is above expectations:
Strengthened expectations for Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and ETH may be driven by capital inflows to break through $4800.
If the unemployment rate continues to rise, it may exacerbate market concerns about economic recession, leading to a short-term pullback to the $4500 support level.

Key Technical Levels
Upward Target: After breaking through $4720, the next resistance level is at $4800, potentially challenging the $5200-$6946 range.
Downward Risk: If the data is negative and fails to break through $4800, it may pull back to the $4500 support zone.

Long Ge's Viewpoint
Short-term: After the unemployment claims data is released, ETH may experience sharp fluctuations. Pay attention to the breakthrough of $4800.
Medium-term: If the macro environment continues to improve, ETH is expected to challenge targets above $5000.
Risk Warning: If the unemployment claims data far exceeds expectations, beware of panic selling in the market; the short-term support level is at $4500.

The crypto market is now a game between institutions and data; retail investors shouldn’t be swayed by short-term fluctuations! Follow me, I’ll provide the first interpretation of the unemployment data tomorrow night!#主流币轮动上涨 #ETH突破4600


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