When I entered the crypto space in 2017, Bitcoin had just experienced its first trillion-dollar market cap frenzy, and the market was filled with myths of 'getting rich overnight.' Seven years later, after experiencing three bull-bear cycles, my understanding has gradually evolved from blindly following trends to systematic thinking. Here are the core insights gained through real investment:

Cyclic Law is an eternal proposition

There is no 'this time is different' in the crypto space. The 2017 ICO bubble, the 2021 DeFi Summer, and the 2024 inscription frenzy, each narrative shift is accompanied by a similar trajectory:

  • Sentiment Indicator: When the square dance aunties start discussing contract leverage, it is often a signal of a temporary peak;

  • On-chain Data: When the exchange inventory of BTC falls below 2 million, it usually indicates that the main force has completed its accumulation;

  • Policy Window: The expansion cycle of central bank balance sheets is highly positively correlated with the crypto market.

Infrastructure Determines Long-term Value

Projects that truly traverse cycles have solved underlying pain points:

  • Ethereum: The evolution from 'world computer' to L2 ecosystem verifies that scalability is the lifeline of public chains;

  • Coinbase: Its compliance path has allowed it to grow during the SEC crackdown, proving that the era of regulatory arbitrage has ended;

  • Uniswap: The AMM mechanism has completely restructured trading logic, but DEX still needs to tackle MEV and liquidity fragmentation issues.

The three most dangerous illusions for retail investors

  1. Technical Analysis is Universal: BTC is often targeted by whales at critical points, with large on-chain transfers revealing direction earlier than candlestick charts;

  2. Community Consensus Safeguard: Before the LUNA crash, there were still people on Discord shouting 'HODL,' but no one paid attention to the daily net outflow of the Anchor protocol's liquidity pool;

  3. Wealth from Rumors: A 2023 insider trading case on a certain exchange showed that 90% of 'top-secret information' was actually a baiting tool used by market makers.

Survival Law Evolution

  • Position Management: Never exceed a 5% position in Meme coins, mainstream coins are dollar-cost averaged using the '312 crash model';

  • Information Filtering: Abandon 99% of Twitter noise, focus on Glassnode, Nansen on-chain data, and the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting minutes;

  • Anti-fragile Allocation: After 2022, my portfolio structure adjusted to 50% BTC + 30% ETH + 10% cash + 10% high-risk hedges.

Key variables for the next three years

  1. ETF Phase II Effect: Once the spot ETH ETF is approved, traditional institutions may increase their allocation to crypto assets from 0.5% to 3%;

  2. TradFi Invasion: BlackRock's mortgage agreement will test BTC as eligible collateral, potentially triggering a reconstruction of the traditional financial system on-chain;

  3. Regulatory Paradigm: If a stablecoin bill is clearly established after the 2024 US elections, USDT may face a dimensional blow from the 'digital dollar.'

The biggest gain in these seven years is realizing that the essence of the crypto space is a magnifier of human nature. Only when you can calmly analyze on-chain data amidst FUD and adhere to loss-cutting discipline during FOMO can you truly understand the deep meaning of 'decentralization' in Satoshi Nakamoto's white paper—what must first be eliminated is the trust in one's own greed.#ETH突破4600