In a bull market, technical analysis, news, and K-line patterns are secondary; what truly determines your ability to make money is position management.
Many people lose money in a bull market, not because they bought the wrong coins, but because of:
Being under-invested when you should be heavily invested (for example, only buying 10% of your position when BTC was at 30,000 USDT);
Being heavily invested when you should be under-invested (for example, FOMO-ing into a pump of a certain altcoin);
Turning short positions into long positions (originally aiming for a swing trade, but ended up being stuck in a "value investment");
Turning long positions into short positions (holding a coin for a year and selling after a 20% rise, missing out on a further 10x).
1. Short vs. Long: Completely different strategies
Goal: Capture hotspots, ride the waves, and avoid overtrading.
Position: No more than 30% of total capital (for example, with 100,000 capital, use a maximum of 30,000 for short trades).
Core principles:
Stop loss: Cut losses exceeding 5%-10%, don't fantasize about "pullbacks."
Take profit: Gradually exit when profits reach 20%-50%, don't be greedy for "a little more increase."
Never add to losing positions: Short trading is speculation; a drop indicates a wrong judgment, don't average down.
Applicable scenarios:
New coins surge upon launch (like recent Notcoin, ZKSync);
Sudden positive news (like ETF approvals or project collaborations);
Market sentiment FOMO (like the MEME coin frenzy).
Wrong example:
Originally intended for short positions, but after a drop, unwilling to accept, turning into "long-term holding," ultimately resulting in zero.
2. Long positions: Set clear goals, hold low-cost chips.
Goal: Capture the entire bull market, achieving at least 3-5 times profit.
Position: Account for 70% of total funds (for example, with 100,000 capital, allocate 70,000 for long positions).
Core principles:
Recoup capital after doubling: Withdraw the initial capital after it doubles, allowing profits to continue to grow.
Sell in batches: Don't sell everything at once; for example, sell 20% for every 50% increase.
Ignore short-term fluctuations: Bull markets will have shakeouts; don't get shaken out.
Applicable targets:
Mainstream coins (BTC, ETH, SOL);
Layer1/Layer2 with real ecosystems (like ARB, OP);
Leading DeFi/GameFi (like UNI, IMX).
Wrong example:
Originally intended to hold long, but sold after a 20% rise, missing out on a further 10x.
2. Position allocation: 7 long and 3 short, never fully invest.
1. 7 long and 3 short: The most stable position ratio in a bull market.
70% long: Positioning in mainstream coins and quality altcoins, riding the major trend.
30% short: Capture hotspots, make swings, and improve capital utilization.
Why not fully invest?
Bull markets will have multiple pullbacks; keeping cash allows for buying at low points.
After doubling short positions, you can transfer some profits to long positions and let it snowball.
Case study:
In October 2023, when BTC was at 27,000 USDT, use 70% of funds to buy long;
Use the remaining 30% for short positions (like SOL, ORDI, etc.), and after making some profits, rotate back into BTC/ETH.
3. How to avoid "missing profits" and "being trapped"?
1. Solution for missing profits: Take profits in batches
Don't sell everything at once, for example:
If it rises 50% → sell 20%;
If it rises 100% → sell another 30%;
Hold the remaining 50% until the end of the bull market.
Mental preparation:
Missing profits is normal; no one can sell at the peak;
Just make the money you are comfortable with.
2. Solution for being trapped: Test positions
"What to do if you're afraid of missing out and also afraid of a waterfall?" → First buy a test position (10%-20%).
If it drops, add positions at lower levels;
If it rises, add more only after confirming the trend.
Case study:
When ETH is at 3000 USDT and unsure if it's at the top, first buy 10%;
If it pulls back to 2800 USDT, add 20%;
If it breaks through 3200 USDT, confirm the trend before adding more.
4. The ultimate mindset in a bull market: Ambiguous correctness
In a bull market, it's impossible to perfectly time the bottom and top, but you can:
Ambiguous bottom buying: Gradually build positions at relatively low levels (for example, when BTC pulls back by 20%);
Ambiguous top selling: Gradually sell during euphoric phases (for example, when everyone is shouting for 100,000 USDT);
Remember:
In a bull market, "buying too early" is better than "buying too late;"
"Selling too early" is better than "selling too late."
5. Summary: Bull market position management checklist
Short positions (30% of funds):
Stop loss 5%-10%, take profit 20%-50%;
No averaging down, no holding onto losing positions;
Only trade hotspots, quick in and out.
Long positions (70% of funds):
Double the capital, let profits run;
Sell in batches; don't liquidate all at once;
Ignore shakeouts, hold low-cost chips.
Never fully invest:
Leave at least 10%-20% cash to wait for pullbacks to add positions.
Mindset management:
Missing out on profits is normal; don't get hung up on it.
Being trapped is a process; start with a test position and add in batches.
Bull markets are the best opportunity for ordinary people to rise, but only those who manage their positions well can survive to the end.
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