Currently, Ethereum is standing on the 'line of life and death' at $4700, having tested this resistance level three times on the hourly chart without success. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the $4580-$4700 range, and market sentiment is like a tightly stretched spring. At this moment, subtle changes in Grayscale's holdings, the release of U.S. CPI data, and the undercurrents in whale wallets are becoming three key levers to unlock the market.
The $4700 mark has become the battlefield for bulls and bears; beware of 'false break' traps
After ETH broke through the key level of $4580 yesterday, it surged to a high of $4629, but the $4700 resistance level acts like an 'invisible ceiling.' From the details of the chart, the hourly MACD shows signs of a top divergence, and the RSI is hovering in the overbought zone. Without a volume boost, a forced breakout may trigger a short-term pullback. The support level at $4580 needs to be closely monitored—if the hourly close falls below this level, it is highly likely to pull back to $4450, where the previous low and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement converge as a support zone.
Three major variables determine the situation: Grayscale, CPI, and whales all exerting force
1. Grayscale holdings show 'zero outflow', institutional attitudes become apparent
According to the latest data, Grayscale's ETHE trust achieved zero net outflow for the first time yesterday, after 71 consecutive days of net outflow and 'bloodletting effect' temporarily halted. More importantly, Grayscale will add six new tokens, including HYPE and ENA, to its investment portfolio in Q1 2025, while removing traditional altcoins like NEAR and STX. This operation suggests that institutions are turning towards more narrative-driven AI Agents and Meme sectors, while ETH, as the ecological base, may experience a 'rising tide lifts all boats' effect.
2. U.S. CPI exceeds expectations, interest rate hike expectations heat up again
The U.S. CPI for August rose 8.3% year-on-year, with core CPI reaching 6.3%, both exceeding expectations. After the data was released, the probability of a 100 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September surged from 30% to 65%, and the dollar index broke through the 110 mark. Historical experience shows that during a strong dollar cycle, cryptocurrencies are easily suppressed by tightening liquidity, but if ETH can form an 'independent market' due to favorable ETF news, it may hedge some macro pressure.
3. Whale wallet 'lightning transfer', DOGE's surge hides mysteries
The most dramatic scene in the crypto market today was when a whale transferred 807 million DOGE within one minute, sparking speculation about 'whale harvesting'. Although DOGE surged 9.6% against the trend, such anomalies often accompany short-term volatility. In contrast, if whale funds flow back from altcoins to mainstream coins, it may provide upward momentum for ETH.
Qing Yao's strategy: Respond according to scenarios, don’t be misled by 'greed'
Aggressive: Try shorting with a small position around $4700, with a stop loss set at $4720; if it breaks out with volume, go long on a pullback to $4650, targeting $4800.
Conservative: Wait patiently for a pullback to $4580 without breaking before re-entering, or wait for a clear signal of over $50 million net inflow into ETH spot ETFs.
Long-term players: Pay attention to changes in holdings by institutions like Grayscale and BlackRock; if ETHE sees zero outflows for three consecutive days, it can be seen as a bottom signal.
Qing Yao reminds: Capture certainty amidst uncertainty
"The charm of the market lies in its ability to always leave a door open for the smart and build a wall for the reckless." Tonight, ETH's $4700 is both a resistance level and a 'watershed of wealth'—breakthrough means endless possibilities, failure means deep squats to gather strength. Do you think ETH can break through $4700 tonight?