The current ETH trend is indeed highly similar to the situation when BTC surged to 70,000 USD last year—institutions buying crazily, pushing prices up, while retail investors react late, and ultimately, funds overflow into altcoins.
1. Core reason for ETH's explosive rise: Institutional funds are dominant.
ETF frenzy: On August 12, a single day inflow exceeded 1 billion USD, with institutions like BlackRock continuously increasing positions.
Corporate hoarding of coins: Companies like BitMine have purchased over 3 billion USD in ETH, exacerbating supply tightness.
Macroeconomic positive: Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations rise in September, funds are flowing into risk assets.
Result: After ETH breaks through 4000 USD, the short-term target points to 4500-5000 USD, even challenging the historical high (4877 USD).
2. When will retail sentiment erupt?
4000 USD is the key psychological barrier. Some large holders may take profits here, but once it breaks through, FOMO sentiment will intensify.
Historical pattern: When BTC surged to 70,000 USD last year, retail investors only entered the market on a large scale later; ETH may replicate this pattern.
On-chain data: Whales are still accumulating, but short-term chip games are intensifying, which may trigger volatility.
Prediction: If ETH stabilizes at 4500 USD, retail will accelerate entry, forming a 'dual driving force' of institutions and retail, pushing prices further up.
3. When will funds overflow into altcoins?
After ETH rises to a high level, funds will look for 'more cost-effective' targets, such as:
XRP: If it breaks through the 3.1 USD resistance, it may start a resurgence.
UNI: DeFi leader, benefiting from the growth of the ETH ecosystem.
LTC: Traditional mainstream coin, low valuation may attract funds.
SUI: Emerging Layer 1, increasing institutional attention.
Key signals:
ETH/BTC exchange rate peaks (currently ETH outperforms BTC, but if BTC leads again, the altcoin season may be delayed).
ETH breaks through the previous high and then consolidates, with funds starting to look for new opportunities.
4. Operational strategy
Short term (1-3 months):
ETH is still the strongest target; buying in batches can be done during a pullback to 4000-4200 USD.
Watch the flow of ETF funds; if it continues to flow in, the upward trend remains unchanged.
Medium term (3-6 months):
If ETH breaks through 5000 USD, gradually reduce positions and wait for the altcoin market.
XRP, UNI, LTC, SUI, etc. may welcome a resurgence, but the market rotation rhythm needs to be observed.
Summary:
Currently, it is an institutional bull market for ETH, with funds still flowing in, and the short-term target is 4500-5000 USD.
Retail FOMO sentiment has not fully erupted; once ETH breaks the new high, it may accelerate the rise.
The altcoin resurgence needs to wait for ETH to show a topping signal; at that time, XRP, UNI, and others may welcome opportunities.
Key point: Don't chase high ETH; wait for a pullback to position; when the altcoin market arrives, prioritize projects with real ecological support.
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