The cryptocurrency market has entered a whole new game, with Bitcoin and Ethereum's independent trends breaking traditional perceptions. The current market presents three core characteristics:

1. Ecological differentiation intensifies

The total supply of tokens exceeds 25,000, with a capital siphoning effect resulting in a liquidity gap for altcoins—Bitcoin’s average daily trading volume exceeds $30 billion, while most altcoins do not reach $500 million. Just like in the second quarter of 2025, when Bitcoin's market share surpasses 55%, over 70% of projects in the altcoin sector experience a decline in average daily trading volume. Those projects that rely solely on white papers to promise future potential will struggle to escape the fate of liquidity exhaustion, even with the arrival of altcoin season.

2. Value screening mechanism upgrade

Breakthroughs in projects like ENA validate new standards: they must either integrate AI and blockchain technology (e.g., a 300% increase in TAO in the first half of the year) or have a real user ecosystem (e.g., ZORA's daily token minting exceeding 47,000 tokens). In contrast, those projects relying solely on community hype are like altcoins stuck in 2018, unable to catch the AI wave or seize the DePIN opportunity, ultimately destined to go to zero in the liquidation wave.

3. Cycle patterns restructured

The current altcoin season index remains at 36 points (neutral zone), still shy of the 50-point activation threshold. Historical data shows that altcoin explosions in 2025 often occur during Bitcoin consolidation in Q2-Q3 (e.g., the rebound in August 2024), but the prerequisite is that the projects must possess:

  • Daily active addresses exceed 100,000 (e.g., Solana ecosystem projects)

  • Monthly average TVL growth exceeds 15% (e.g., leading protocols in the DePIN track)

  • Whale addresses continue to increase their holdings (e.g., ZORA's top 10 addresses' share increased from 12% to 21%)

  • Look at the tokens that are still hovering at low levels after April 2025—they are like forgotten altcoins from 2018, unable to catch the AI wave or seize the DePIN opportunity, ultimately destined to go to zero in the liquidation wave. True value projects never need to pray for altcoin season; they are the wave itself.