Bitcoin's Volatility Game After Box Breakthrough: Key Levels Determine Short-Term Direction

I. Core Operational Signals: Response to Breakthrough and Pullback Critical Points

• Long Strategy:

1. Volume breakout at $119,536 (hourly closing price stabilizes) → enter long on the right side, stop loss immediately upon break (to validate the effectiveness of the breakout);

2. False breakdown at $118,073 with a pullback → enter long with light positions, stop loss refers to the false breakdown low or $116,959; if not reclaimed, abandon;

3. Stabilizing above $120,181 on an hourly basis → target $120,833 → $121,835; note: if it cannot break the $120,000 round number, the significance of the rebound is limited.

• Short Strategy:

1. Volume drop below $119,375 → enter short on the right side; if unable to reclaim on the rebound, stop loss (volume is key to selling pressure intensity);

2. Appearance of a 2B false breakout at $120,833 (drops back after breakout) → enter short with light positions; must stop loss if stabilizing above $121,835 (do not counter strong trends).

II. Volatility Logic After Box Breakthrough: Risk Warning for Pullbacks and Breakouts

After the breakout of the hourly box, the price failed to continue rising, currently pulling back to the upper boundary of the box —

• If it does not drop back into the box, it will likely oscillate around $119,000;

• If it drops back into the box, be wary: the lower boundary of the flag must break, the trend weakens, and the support of the $119,191-$118,179 range is difficult to maintain (likely to be breached). $118,179 is the key signal for the start of the decline, its loss directly determines the pullback rhythm.

III. Key Levels and Pullback Targets: Pressure Steps and Support Baselines

• Upper Pressure Levels: $120,181 (short-term breakout confirmation line) → $120,833 (medium-term resistance) → $121,835 (trend extension target);

• Lower Support Baselines: $119,130 (immediate defense) → $118,046 (pullback buffer) → $117,015 (deep adjustment support).

The 4-hour level requires close attention to $119,092: if it breaks, the pullback is established, targeting $117,993 → $117,103, and it may soon touch the $117,000 round number.

IV. Conservative Layout Suggestions

For conservative players, waiting to set long positions at $110,616 is advisable, with a stop loss below $115,178 — this position is in a relatively deep support range, suitable for avoiding short-term volatility risks.

Summary: Box boundaries define strength and weakness; $118,179 is the watershed

Currently, Bitcoin is in the 'post-breakout volatility pullback' stage.