August 13 Market Analysis
I. News Review
Overnight, the U.S. July CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, lower than market expectations, boosting market bullish sentiment.
After the data was released, the market did not overinterpret it, but expectations for a rate cut in September were further confirmed.
Subsequently, Federal Reserve's Bostic stated: Typically, in favorable data conditions, the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points in September, which directly ignited market sentiment.
Bitcoin once again challenges 120,000
Ethereum successfully tests 4,650
Gold experiences fluctuations and pullbacks
II. Technical Analysis
1. Bitcoin (BTC)
Under pressure from the “southward structure,” attention should be paid to the breakout central zone: 115,500 – 119,900
Main trend central zone: 100,000 – 110,900
Structural point: 111,700
Key resistance above: 122,000 (test target), previous high 123,300 is a crucial breakout point
4-hour level: Pressured at 119,800, but still has upward momentum
MACD: Death cross above the zero line, but signs of support are emerging; momentum bars are shrinking below the zero line, short-term weak
Bitcoin trading strategy
Long position: 118,500 long, stop loss 117,900, target 119,700 → 120,700 → 122,000
Short position: 120,000 short, stop loss 120,500, target 118,500
2. Ethereum (ETH)
Sufficient upward momentum, currently no obvious divergence, but caution against pullback risks
4-hour level: Platform breakout and achieves 4,650 test, adjustment possible
MACD: Golden cross support above the zero line, but the fast line may show signs of a second death cross; momentum bars increasing
Ethereum trading strategy
Long position: 4,573 long, stop loss 4,555, target 4,630, break upwards look for 4,800
Short position: 4,617 short (market price), stop loss 4,639, target 4,570 → 4,590, break down look for 4,520
Key support zone: 4,240 – 4,260
III. Today's Rhythm Tips
Both long and short-term opportunities exist, but strict stop-loss execution is required
Bitcoin focus on support near 119,100
Ethereum focus on pressure near 4,650
