Many friends who missed out say Ethereum is currently unloading.
The truth is — data still shows inflows, but we cannot rule out that whales are quietly selling.
The main force’s selling logic has never been a crash.
It resembles a clearance sale in a mall: it won’t start with a '10% off', but rather a '20% off', slowly moving out the goods.
1. Support level, not a bottom, but the 'cost defense line' of the main force
Those supports you think are unbreakable (ETH 2200, 2000 USD) are actually just the lowest selling prices of the main force.
In 2023, ETH rebounded three times when it touched 2200, not because the market formed a bottom automatically, but because the main force hadn't sold out yet.
Below this price, profits are compressed, the main force will provide short-term support, but it’s definitely not the bottom of a free market.
False breakdown: deliberately breaking below support to scare off retail investors, then quickly pulling it back — buying low + selling high at both ends.
Real breakdown: three consecutive 4-hour candles closing below support, with volume surging over 30% → The main force has basically cleared out, and the real drop follows.
2. The 'three-stage script' of the main force’s selling
① Pulling while selling (inducing buyers)
Using 5%-10% of capital to pull up, making people think the main rising wave is still on.
Retail investors chase highs, while the main force conveniently reduces their position by 3%-5%.
The more bullish candles, the smoother the selling.
② High-level fluctuations (horizontal distribution)
Range-bound trading (for example, 3200-3400), with frequent upper and lower shadows.
Smashing the upper edge, pulling the lower edge, making people feel support is stable.
Grinding sideways for 15 days, the main position has been lightened by more than half.
③ Selling while falling (clearing inventory)
Less than 20% of the position left, slight bearish decline to attract bottom fishing.
Control the decline to 10%-15%, neither causing panic nor leaving buyers out.
A real crash, wait until all chips are disposed of before coming in.
3. The 'three viewing rules' to crack the selling puzzle
1. Look at volume and price
Price rises with increased volume but doesn’t move → High-level distribution
Horizontal trading with large bullish volume, and small bearish volume → Creating excitement to attract buyers
2. Look at the chips
Large investors reduce, small investors increase → Chips flow from the main force's pocket to retail investors' pockets.
3. Look at capital flow
A lot of inflow in one day, followed by small outflows for 3-5 days → 'Less in, more out', total outflow is the key
Conclusion:
Every rise, consolidation, and pullback of ETH is a psychological battle between the main force and retail investors.
Looking at price is not as good as looking at chips; focusing on K-lines is not as good as focusing on capital flow.
When rising, don’t just focus on bullish candles, learn to find 'selling signals within bullish candles';
When consolidating, understand 'chip transfer within fluctuations';
When falling, distinguish whether it’s a washout or clearing inventory.
Once you understand the selling logic, you can avoid catching the last wave and find real opportunities in the fluctuations.
